Through 4 races, NASCAR’s Cup Series has produced four different winners in a relatively surprising fashion. Last week, Kyle Larson scored the 2nd straight victory for Hendrick Motorsports with a victory in the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Larson missed the majority of the 2020 season due to a conduct suspension, and while many expected he would benefit from his move to Hendrick Motorsports, few expected a win so early in the season at a 1.5-mile speedway where Larson had never won before. On Sunday, the Cup Series will continue their 2021 version of the west coast swing with a stop at Phoenix Raceway for the running of the Instacart 500.
Though I have failed to hit a race winner through the first four races of the season, I have still managed to pull a profit due to some sharp H2H match-ups and some big wins in the lower series. Fortunately, you don’t have to win every week in NASCAR, especially when you are delivering in the form of match-ups and prop bets. To this point in the season, I feel like the picks have been strong, and I also believe we are getting really close to scoring the 1st Cup Series victory of the season. Despite four surprise winners, the handicapping has been strong, and that is reason to be optimistic moving forward.
For Sunday’s race at Phoenix, rest assured Cup Series teams and drivers will take this race very seriously because Phoenix remains the new home for the championship finale at season’s end. Therefore, teams want to find as much speed as possible around the 1-mile tri-oval and capture good notes for a possible return in November with a championship on the line. Historically, Phoenix produces few surprise winners. Ryan Newman is the only winner within the last decade that can be labeled a surprise winner, and Newman got the job done in 2017 due to a risky late-race pit strategy. In every other visit to Phoenix, the Cup Series’ top drivers have prevailed.
Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch are the two names that have become synonymous with Phoenix Raceway in recent years. Harvick owns the most victories (9) all-time in the Cup Series at Phoenix, including an unbelievable stretch from 2012-2106, where he won 6 out of 8 races. Kyle Busch does not have the number of wins (3) as Harvick but has arguably been better in recent years. Rowdy has produced a staggering 3.8 average finishing position over the last 11 races and finished 4th or better in 9 of those 11 events. Busch had a strong performance at Las Vegas last week, so if the #18 team can unload another fast Toyota, Busch has some really sharp value for Sunday’s race.
I should mention that Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Ryan Newman are the only other drivers with multiple Phoenix victories. Meanwhile, Chase Elliott and Kurt Busch are also former Phoenix winners. Despite somewhat struggling through the opening few races, this is a perfect opportunity for Elliott to get back on track. The reigning series champion won last year’s finale at Phoenix and should have another good opportunity with the way Hendrick Motorsports’ cars are performing. Meanwhile, last week’s winner in Kyle Larson deserves to be kept on the radar again this week. It would not be completely surprising to see Larson go back to back this week based on his prior performance at Phoenix. With Chip Ganassi Racing, Larson finished 4th or better in five of his last eight starts. Considering the undeniable upgrade in equipment that has been evident through the first few weeks, Larson is a live threat again this weekend.
Early betting odds did not provide a lot of enthusiasm this week, with seven different drivers listed at less than 10-1 odds. While we should see some better odds due to the parity witnessed in 2021, Phoenix Raceway has proven to be a track that is conquered by few, and that is why guys like Harvick, Logano, Elliott, and others are receiving short odds despite some questionable performances in the last few weeks. Ultimately, H2H match-ups may be the preferred option again this week if odds do not greatly improve. However, I would suggest Ryan Blaney as a driver that could fit into all betting formats. Blaney has run really well at Phoenix in recent years despite not always capturing the finishes to show for it. At 16-1 odds, Blaney has some of the best value on the board and likely should be targeted in match-ups as a legitimate dark horse to challenge the favorites.
