NASCAR’s playoffs will continue this weekend with the running of the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. Following last week’s opening race in the playoffs, Kyle Larson has secured his advancement into the round of 12 courtesy of his victory in the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. However, there are still 15 other drivers fighting to keep their championship hopes alive this week as the Cup Series makes their 2nd stop of the season at Kansas. Back in the spring, Denny Hamlin captured his 4th career victory at Kansas, and he will be a popular favorite once again this weekend!
When you look at prior races at Kansas, Hamlin easily stands out as the best in performance. In 3 races with the Next Gen Car, Hamlin has finished no worse than 4th, and that includes the victory earlier this year. The only other driver that has posted results even close to that mark is Kyle Larson, who has posted two runner-up finishes at Kansas in the Next Gen Car. However, Bubba Wallace proved last year that you cannot always simply bet on the favorites. Wallace scored an upset victory in last year’s Hollywood Casino 400, cashing winning tickets at 30-1 odds. As we prepare for this weekend’s race at Kansas, there are a few guys that deserve some betting consideration that I have identified through our performance metrics.
Kansas Speedway: Fast Facts
- Denny Hamlin (4) leads all active drivers with the most wins at Kansas.
- Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have the best average finishing position (7.1) among all drivers over the last ten races at Kansas.
- Kevin Harvick (3), Joey Logano (3), Martin Truex (2), Brad Keselowski (2), Kyle Busch (2), Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and Bubba Wallace are all former winners at Kansas.
- Toyota drivers have won 4 of the last five races at Kansas.
- Martin Truex has finished inside the top 10 in 12 of the last 13 races at Kansas.
- Ross Chastain has finished 7th or better in each of the three races at Kansas in the Next Gen Car.
- Bubba Wallace has posted finishes of 1st and 4th in his last two starts at Kansas.
- Ryan Blaney has failed to capture a top 5 finish in his last 11 starts at Kansas.
- The eventual race winner has started from the top 10 starting positions in each of the last seven races at Kansas.
When it comes to handicapping the 1.5 mile tracks, I typically like to refer to in-season performance trends. Unlike Darlington last week, which was purely a drivers’ track, Kansas Speedway does not produce a tremendous degree of difficulty from the driver’s seat. Therefore, we should really consider the drivers/teams that have been showing the most speed consistently at these intermediate layouts because they will likely be the guys leading the field on Sunday. With that said, check out our dynamic averages at NASCARWagers, which shows performance metrics from the last five races at 1.5 mile venues.
As you will see, Kyle Larson and Martin Truex have amassed a pretty significant lead compared to the rest of the field at the 1.5-mile tracks. Simply based on how well Larson has been at Kansas in the Next Gen Car, he has a real shot to go back-to-back this week. However, I would also point to names like Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, and Alex Bowman as drivers who have run very well on similar layouts. Personally, I really like Wallace as a potential dark horse this week, though he is the defending winner of this event. Meanwhile, Chastain and Bowman are guys that I believe will run much better than current betting odds suggest and should be targeted in H2H match-ups. Obviously, there will be more to digest as we get closer to race time and observe practice/qualifying sessions. For now, I will lay some money on a few sharp bets, which are listed below!
