Joey Logano completed the three-race sweep of the Contender Round with a victory last Sunday at Talladega. Dale Earnhardt Jr. raced well enough to finish second, but was still eliminated from the Chase and Jeff Gordon took third. Martin Truex Jr. was my top valued contender at +1800 but he could only manage a seventh-place finish after starting at the back of the pack from the 43rd spot.
The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s Sprint Cup race along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by Bovada.
There is a field of five drivers listed as +600 favorites to win this race starting with Joey Logano. He deserves to be at the top of the list after his incredible run in the last round of the Chase. However, he also knows that success can be fleeting if he cannot get a win in one of the next three races before the Championship Round. Logano now has the most point-race victories in the Sprint Cup series this season with six behind the wheel of the No. 22 car and he has yet to finish outside the Top 10 in this year’s Chase. He placed third in the first race at Martinsville this year for his third-straight run here in the Top 5.
Kevin Harvick is feeling the heat after using some controversial tactics at the end of last week’s race to help preserve his spot in the final field on eight, but he comes into this round as one of the +600 favorites to win this Sunday’s race. The defending Sprint Cup Champ won earlier in the Chase at Dover, but he slipped to 15th last week at Talladega after falling to 16th at Kansas the week before. While his current form is not what it was for the better part of the regular season when he consistently guided the No. 4 car to a Top 5 finish, Harvick is always a threat to win. Some value is lost in these odds with an average finishing position of 16.1 at Martinsville.
Another driver at +600 odds to win on Sunday that is still in the Chase is Jeff Gordon. The long-time NASCAR veteran has quietly kept the No. 24 car in position the win a Sprint Cup title in his final fulltime season racing in this series with four Top-10 runs in the first six races of the Chase, but this team has yet to take the checkered flag this year. Gordon has raced well at Martinsville in recent years with a victory in this race in 2013 to go along four more finishes in the Top 10 in his other five trips around this track. His average finishing position here is a solid 6.9.
- Jimmie Johnson 6-1
- Denny Hamlin 6-1
- Jeff Gordon 6-1
- Joey Logano 6-1
- Kevin Harvick 6-1
- Kyle Busch 7-1
- Matt Kenseth 7-1
- Brad Keselowski 12-1
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12-1
- Carl Edwards 15-1
- Kurt Busch 20-1
- Martin Truex Jr. 20-1
- Kasey Kahne 40-1
