Last Sunday in Las Vegas, Brad Keselowski scored an early point-race victory by taking the checkered flag in the Kobalt 500. Joey Logano and Jimmie Johnson rounded-out the top three as two of the top favorites to win that race. My top value play of Martin Truex Jr. at +1200 betting odds came up well short in his 11th-place run.
The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s race at Phoenix along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by MyBookie.
It has not been the start that Kevin Harvick was looking for with a seventh-place finish last week following a sixth-place run at Atlanta after taking fourth in the Daytona 500. However, that could all change this Sunday as a heavy +300 favorite to win. The No. 4 car was almost an automatic Top 3 bet last season with 16 finishes of either first or second in 36 point-race events, so it is probably only a matter of time before this team returns to form. The value in this week’s odds lies in his seven previous victories at this track including a trip to the Winner’s Circle in last year’s event.
Jimmie Johnson is one of two drivers listed as +700 second-favorites to win on Sunday and given his fast start that is probably not a bad bet. The No. 48 car followed-up a disappointing 16th-place finish at Daytona with a victory in the next race at Atlanta to go along with last Sunday’s third-place run in Las Vegas. Current form aside, Johnson has four checkered flag on his resume in a Sprint Cup race at Phoenix as part of a stellar average finishing position of 7.7 at this track. It has been awhile since he has made his way to Victory Lane here, but you get the feeling he could be due.
The other +700 second-favorite is Kurt Busch. While his younger brother has been grabbing all the headlines lately as the defending Sprint Cup Champ, Kurt continues to plod along with three solid Top-10 runs in the first three events of the 2016 season including a fourth-place finish at Atlanta. After serving a three-race suspension from NASCAR last season, he made his debut at Phoenix and finished fifth. The No. 41 car placed seventh in the second race at this track last year and Busch’s average finishing position here is 13.7.
Good Sam 500 Betting Odds
- Kevin Harvick +300
- Jimmie Johnson +600
- Kyle Busch +700
- Joey Logano +800
- Brad Keselowski +1000
- Carl Edwards +1000
- Denny Hamlin +1000
- Matt Kenseth +1000
- Dale Earnhardt, Jr. +1200
- Kurt Busch +1200
- Martin Truex, Jr. +1200
- Austin Dillon +2000
- Kasey Kahne +2800
- Kyle Larson +2800
- Chase Elliott +3300
- Jamie McMurray +4000
- Ryan Newman +5000
- Clint Bowyer +6600
- Ryan Blaney +6600
- Greg Biffle +10000
- Paul Menard +10000
- Ty Dillon +15000
- David Ragan +25000
- Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. +25000
- A. J. Allmendinger +30000
- Aric Almirola +30000
- Danica Patrick +30000
- Regan Smith +30000
- Casey Mears +50000
- Chris Buescher +50000
- Trevor Bayne +50000
- Cole Whitt +100000
- Josh Wise +100000
- Matt DiBenedetto 100000
- Michael Annett +100000
- Michael McDowell +100000
- Joey Gase +100000
