NASCAR’s Cup Series will take center stage on Sunday with the running of the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This weekend’s race marks the Cup Series only trip to Loudon this season but gives us a rather refreshing break from the 1.5-mile speedways that have dominated the schedule over the last several weeks. New Hampshire’s flat 1-mile surface provides a different style of racing compared to what drivers have experienced in recent weeks and provides an opportunistic betting scenario.
In the last few races, bettors could almost blindly anticipate Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney would likely be the best cars each week. Those drivers have easily been identified as the fastest on the 1.5-mile layouts this season. Last week, Denny Hamlin scored his series-leading 5th win of the season at Kansas. To put things into perspective, Hamlin, Blaney, and Harvick have won seven of the last ten races. Blaney’s win actually came at Talladega, and though his wins do not match the likes of Harvick and Hamlin, his speed has been among the best in the series all season.
The reason this week’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 provides an advantageous betting opportunity is because those trends on the 1.5-mile speedways are misleading. The potent aerodynamic speed qualities necessary towards running up front at the 1.5-mile speedways does not apply in Loudon. Instead, this 1-mile flat surface ultimately comes down to driver input and long-run speed. From a handicapping standpoint, we can throw momentum out the window (to an extent) while putting our heaviest betting interests towards track history and stylistic driver analysis.
Though the handicapping angles change this week, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin remain your top threats, which is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. Harvick owns the most wins (4) among active drivers with 3 in the last five races. Meanwhile, Hamlin holds the best average finishing position (9.88) among active drivers and has three wins at New Hampshire on his resume. With that said, I don’t believe Harvick and Hamlin’s advantage will be as big as we have seen in recent weeks. My sharp pick among the favorites is Martin Truex Jr, who is listed at +700 at MyBookie. Truex has really figured out how to get around New Hampshire, leading 80 plus laps in five of the last six races. I really like the current performance of the #19 team and believe Truex will be really dangerous in terms of long-run speed.
