This Sunday, NASCAR visits Circuit of the Americas for the first time in history for the running of the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix. Located on the southside of Austin, Texas, Circuit of the Americas (COTA) is a 3.426 mile road course that has fielded races in IndyCar, Formula One, and other prestigious racing series. Now for the first time, the Cup Series will face the difficult challenge of this unique layout in NASCAR’s debut at Circuit of the Americas. Despite the lack of track history, this Sunday’s race will provide another advantageous betting opportunity. Therefore, let’s take an early look at what to expect from COTA on Sunday!
For starters, it is essential to note that the Cup Series will host practices and qualifying this weekend. In the post-COVID era of NASCAR, pre-race practices and qualifying have been eradicated in efforts to shorten racing weekends. Due to the fact this will be teams and drivers’ first visit to Circuit of the Americas, NASCAR will host a 50-minute practice session early Saturday and will also host qualifying early Sunday before cars roll onto the starting grid. For bettors, pre-race activities will be a pleasant change of pace and will provide the opportunity to observe cars on-track before the initial green flag is waved. As a result, we can utilize practice and qualifying observations towards our final bets on Sunday.
At this time, let’s discuss what we can expect from Sunday’s EchoPark Texas Grand Prix before cars take to the track. It is important to note that Circuit of the Americas is unlike any other road course on the Cup Series schedule. COTA produces a bit of every challenging aspect to a road course, including blind corners, elevation changes, sweeping corners, and also heavy braking zones into sharp corners. Needless to say, drivers will face a difficult test towards getting around this 3.426 mile layout. With that said, we know two drivers stand alone in the realm of road course talent. At this time, it is no secret that Chase Elliott and Martin Truex are ahead of the competition in terms of skill on the road courses.
Elliott’s string of 4 straight wins on the road courses was snapped back in February at Daytona’s Road Course. Despite the 21st place finish, Elliott led the majority of that race but ran into trouble trying to race back through the field following a late pit stop. Without question, Elliott has a great opportunity to earn his 1st victory of the season on Sunday, and rest assured, the pressure is starting to mount for the #9 team when you consider every other Hendrick Motorsports driver has captured a victory this season. Last week, Hendrick Motorsports captured the top 4 positions at Dover, which is the first time a 4-car team has ever conquered the top 4 positions at the Monster Mile. Needless to say, Hendrick Motorsports cars have some momentum, and that bodes well for Elliott this week.
With that said, I still believe Martin Truex provides the better betting options based on current odds. Elliott is listed at nearly 2.5 to 1 odds, while Truex is getting twice the value at 5 to 1 odds. Truex has a lucrative 5.44 average finishing position over the last nine road course events, which proves he is always in a position to win these events. Additionally, I would point to the fact that Truex and the #19 team have excelled under this 750HP package that is utilized on the road courses. Truex leads the Cup Series with three victories on the season, and they have all been produced using the 750HP package. Obviously, we would be eliminating betting value if we were to place both Elliott and Truex on our lineups this week. Therefore, I will take my chances with Truex at twice the value on the heels of an insanely successful season thus far.
Outside of the favorites, bettors should still consider this week’s race at COTA is unique in the fact that there have been no prior races at this particular track. With no prior history or track experience, we cannot rule out the possibility of a surprise winner this week. If a team nails a winning setup or a driver adapts quicker to the layout, it would not be surprising to see a surprise winner similar to Christopher Bell’s win at Daytona’s Road Course back in February.
For those reasons, I would point bettors towards considering guys like Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Kurt Busch as less popular choices that yield value. Hamlin is still searching for his 1st win despite a significant points lead and has become a relatively strong road course talent in recent years. At 10-1 odds, this is the best value we will see on Hamlin in the foreseeable future. I mentioned Bell’s surprise win at Daytona, and at 18-1 odds, perhaps there is value again? Lastly, Kurt Busch is my favorite dark horse at plus 30-1 odds. The elder Busch is a legitimate road course talent but is being completely disrespected by current odds. Recent performance scares me a bit for Busch, but I’m not ruling out potential prop or H2H style bets later in the week! Be sure to follow me at NASCARWagers.com for official lineups this week following practices.
