Martin Truex Jr. became the third different driver to win a Monster Energy Cup Series point-race event in as many weeks after taking the checkered flag last Sunday in Las Vegas. For the second week in a row, Kyle Larson took second place and Chase Elliot had a good run to finish third. Matt Kenseth was my top-valued pick in that race at +1200 betting odds, but he faded to ninth.
The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s race at Phoenix along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by 5DIMES
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Kevin Harvick is still looking for his first Top 5 finish of the new season after a disastrous afternoon in Las Vegas last Sunday that saw his day end early in a wreck. He was in position to win at Atlanta, but a late-race pit road infraction ended his chances. Daytona was another disappointing stop with a 22nd-place finish. Despite the shaky start for one of the sport’s top drivers, this could be the week the No. 4 Chevrolet breaks through with a winning run as a +375 favorite. The main reason for such high optimism is Harvick’s complete dominance at Phoenix. Going back to the 2012 season, he has won here six times with two additional second-place finishes in 10 point-race events.
Another high-profile driver that is off to a less than stellar start is defending Cup Champion Jimmie Johnson. He is buried in the current Monster Energy Cup standings with just 55 total points after finishing outside the top 10 in his first three races. His total laps led this season stand at just 28. Last week at Las Vegas was a bit more encouraging with the No. 48 Chevrolet working its way to 11th place after starting 16th in the field. Johnson’s odds to break through this Sunday have been set at +850 and there is some value given his overall performance at this track. While his last victory was back in 2009, he still has four career wins here and an average finishing position of 9.0.
Joey Logano has also been listed at +850 odds to win this week. The No. 22 Ford raced its way to a solid fourth-place finish last week at Las Vegas and on the year it has finished in the top 10 in all three events. It is currently in sixth-place in the standings with 119 points. One of Logano’s biggest victories last season on his way to a runner-up finish in the final Cup standings was in the fall race at Phoenix. This placed him in the field for that final four championship at Homestead-Miami. He finished 18th in this event last season.
