Our three-race winning streak came to an end at Talladega Superspeedway last week thanks to a rain-shortened event that yielded a win to Bubba Wallace. While we knew Talladega was a risky betting venue, bettors can rejoice in more favorable opportunities this week with the Cup Series’ return to the ROVAL at Charlotte Motor Speedway. NASCAR has made a significant effort to bring more road course races to its top division, and Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 will officially be the 7th and final road course race of the season. As a result, we have plenty of performance trends from prior road course events this year to combine with historical data at the ROVAL, which should provide some tremendous betting opportunities!
For starters, the ROVAL at Charlotte Motor Speedway has only been around for a few years. Ryan Blaney won the inaugural event in 2018 after Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex wrecked coming to the finish line. In the most recent races in 2019 and 2020, Chase Elliott has conquered the ROVAL in dominating fashion. In fact, Elliott’s win in 2019 may have been among the most impressive of his career. After wrecking on a restart, Elliott drove back through the field to capture the win. As many may be aware, Elliott has become the elite road course talent in the Cup Series with seven career victories in 18 road course starts. Going into Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400, Elliott, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and others are all in desperate need of an outstanding performance to keep their championship hopes alive.
Luckily for Elliott, the timing of the Bank of America ROVAL 400 appears to be impeccable. After dismal performances at Las Vegas and Talladega, Elliott enters Sunday’s return to the ROVAL as the clear favorite. I’m sure a lot of people will point to the fact that Elliott has won 2 of the three races at the ROVAL as the main reason for his heavily favored status, but I would point to the numerous races this season on the road courses as the best evidence for Elliott this week. Due to the sheer volume of road course events, I just don’t think the #9 team will miss the setup this week, and without any unforeseen bad luck, Elliott is going to be extremely difficult to beat.
From a betting standpoint, I am putting a much heavier focus on match-ups this week and have provided a lot of analytical data to support that narrative @NASCARWagers. However, I would point to the rest of the Hendrick Motorsports cars as potential upset options. Kyle Larson has been Elliott’s biggest competitor throughout the season, especially on the road courses where Larson has two wins already this season. Meanwhile, Alex Bowman and William Byron are in must-win situations to keep their championship hopes alive, which means those teams may be more likely to attempt a Hail Mary strategy call. However, both Byron and Bowman are underrated road course talents. In fact, Bowman may be among the sharpest bets in the field with a 4.7 average finish through 3 starts at the ROVAL. Bowman finished 4th and 2nd in his first two starts at the ROVAL and has been extremely strong under the 750hp rules package this year. As a result, I have the #48 as my top sleeper for Sunday!
