Ryan Newman was able to end an extended Cup Series winning drought with last Sunday’s victory at Phoenix, while Kyle Larson remained a model of consistency with his third-straight second-place finish. Matt Kenseth rounded out the top three in last Sunday’s race. I had Chase Elliott as my top-valued contender at +1350 odds and he faded to 12th after leading a good portion of this race.
The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s race at Fontana along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by 5Dimes Sportsbook
Race Favorites
Defending Cup Champion Jimmie Johnson’s early defense of his 2016 title has pretty much been forgettable through his first four point-race events with just one Top 10 finish, but there is a good chance that this Sunday’s race will jump start the No. 48 Chevrolet racing team’s 2017 season as a +600 favorite to win the Auto Club 400. The team did move in the right direction with a ninth-place finish at Phoenix, but the real value in these odds is Johnson’s past performance at Fontana. Last year’s victory in this race was the sixth of his career at this track and overall he has posted a highly impressive 6.5 average finishing position here.
Kevin Harvick is another one of the Cup Series top drivers that is off to a slower than expected start with just two runs inside the top 10 so far. Last Sunday at Phoenix, the No. 4 Chevrolet posted its best run of the season with a sixth-place finish and it came very close to winning at Atlanta after leading that race for 292 laps. Harvick’s odds to win this Sunday have been set at +800 as one of five second-favorites and I like the value in those odds given his recent runs at this track. Going back to the 2011 season, he has finished inside the top five in four of six trips around this oval. He won this race that season and he placed second in both 2015 and 2016.
One of the other +800 second-favorites that adds some solid value to his odds is Brad Keselowski. The No. 2 Ford has already made it way the Winner’s Circle this season with a victory at Atlanta and with a fifth-place finish last week at Phoenix it has placed fifth or bettor in its last three point-race events after posting a disappointing 27th-place finish at Daytona. Keselowski is first in the standings under NASCAR’s new racing format with a total of 178 points. He adds even more value to his odds with a victory at Fontana in 2015 followed by a ninth-place run in last year’s race.
