On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series visits Nashville Speedway for the first time in series history when the green flag waves for the Ally 400. Located in Music City, Nashville Speedway is a 1.33 mile concrete oval with relatively flat banking at just 14 degrees in the apex of the corners. The track previously held both Camping World Truck Series and Xfinity Series events from 2001-2011. After several years of inactivity, Nashville Speedway has been brought back to life and will culminate with Sunday’s running of the Ally 400.
It is extremely rare that NASCAR drivers and teams have the luxury of visiting a venue for the first time. However, this will be the 3rd time this season that NASCAR’s highest level will be racing on a brand new surface for the first time following appearances at Bristol’s dirt race and Circuit of the Americas. Fortunately for bettors, these first-time venues provide an opportunity to return to traditional race weekends with both practice and qualifying sessions held before start time. Bettors should pay close attention to Friday’s practices which could shed light on the drivers/teams that have adapted quickly to Nashville’s unique layout. Without any prior track history, we can learn a great deal in the 50-minute session Friday afternoon.
As the weekend approaches, the most critical aspect towards Sunday’s race to take into account is that Cup Series’ teams will be utilizing the 750HP rules package that has been used at all tracks this season that are less than 1.5 miles in length. Under this package specifically, Martin Truex Jr has produced three victories this season at Phoenix, Martinsville, and Darlington. I have seen a lot of chatter around Truex already this week, as many bettors have jumped on the #19 at the onset of early betting odds. While I understand the connection, I don’t believe Truex is the sharp bet this week, mainly because this track does not fit his driving style.
I firmly believe that handicapping should never rely on a single betting angle, and while Truex’s performance under this rules package is undeniably strong, I believe there are sharper betting options this week among the favorites. Instead, I am targeting drivers like Kyle Busch and Joey Logano as the week approaches. I really like Logano’s opening odds which are near the 15-1 range. Logano has been really solid under the current rules package and has the aggressive driving style to attack these fast & flat corners. Meanwhile, Kyle Busch is among the few drivers with experience at Nashville Speedway stemming from his Xfinity Series’ competition. In fact, Busch is a two-time Xfinity Series winner at Nashville Speedway. The #18 team has been stringing together quality results in recent weeks, and this will undoubtedly be a great opportunity for Rowdy to get back to victory lane.
There are a few other drivers that deserve consideration this week. Obviously, Kyle Larson has won 3 races in a row, if you include last week’s non-points paying All-Star Race. Larson is the hottest driver in the series and perhaps in the best equipment, judging by Hendrick Motorsports’ performance this year. With that being said, don’t overlook William Byron, who continues to show elite speed week after week. Byron actually ranks 4th among active drivers with a 106.7 average driver rating this season in the 750HP package and has consistently been in the top 5 throughout the season. Another deeper long shot may include the likes of Christopher Bell. Bell was one of the few cars/teams that had a chance to test at Nashville earlier this year, and the #20 team has been showing improvement every week. Bell struck gold, seemingly out of nowhere, back at Daytona’s road course. Therefore, don’t rule him out completely this week.
