Just one race remains before NASCAR’s championship weekend at Phoenix. Last week, Christopher Bell joined Kyle Larson as the only two drivers that have secured their championship bid to Phoenix. Larson won the opening race of the Round of 8 at Las Vegas while Bell secured his 2nd straight trip to the championship finale by winning last week at Homestead-Miami Speedway. This week two additional drivers will earn their opportunity to fight for a championship when the green flag waves for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway.
This Sunday’s Xfinity 500 will be the Cup Series’ 2nd trip to Martinsville Speedway this season. Back in April, Kyle Larson captured a victory in the NOCO 400. Back in the spring race, we saw a lot of different drivers from the Ford camp compete really well. Ryan Preece led a career high 135 laps, Chase Briscoe led a season high 109 laps, while guys like Joey Logano and Aric Almirola also performed really well. Unfortunately, the Ford drivers have not shown great speed throughout the 2nd half of the season which lessens the opportunity for potential surprise stories from the Ford camp. With that being said, let’s take a look at some historical narratives and recent trends that bettors should be aware of going into this weekend’s Xfinity 500.
Martinsville Speedway: Betting Notes
- Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 5 career wins at Martinsville.
- Martin Truex Jr (3), Kyle Busch (2), Brad Keselowski (2), Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, Alex Bowman, William Byron, and Kyle Larson are also former winners at Martinsville.
- Despite never winning at Martinsville, Ryan Blaney has the best average finishing position (9.5) among all active drivers through 15 career starts.
- Denny Hamlin has finished in the Top 5 in 18 of his 35 career starts at Martinsville.
- Chase Elliott has produced the highest average driver rating (115.0) over the last 7 races at Martinsville which includes 765 laps led during that stretch.
- Joey Logano has finished inside the Top 10 in 10 of his last 11 starts at Martinsville.
- Chase Briscoe has finished inside the Top 10 in all 3 starts at Martinsville in the Next Gen Car.
- Chevrolet drivers have won 4 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.
If we look at the last 3 races at Martinsville Speedway in the Next Gen Car, we see a wide array of performance observations from each event. The reason that we have not seen any consistent performance trends is because the short-track package with the Next Gen Car has been distasteful to say the least. These races have often been a game of track position with few cars/drivers being able to make moves through the field. Based on what we have seen thus far in 2023, I’m expecting another similar set of circumstances this Sunday which means bettors should proceed with caution.
If I could generalize the Xfinity 500 from a betting standpoint, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Martin Truex Jr have easily been the best drivers consistently at Martinsville in recent years. However, I would only put Hamlin in the category of performing well enough to win this weekend unless we see something significantly different. However, I would also state that guys like Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, and Christopher Bell are your best bets to win that are worth the betting odds from an ROI perspective. For H2H match-ups, consider Ryan Preece and Chase Briscoe excellent options that should bring profits to betting lineups!
