Last week, Michael McDowell earned just the 2nd victory of his career by winning the Verizon 200 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. While many may have been blindsided by the surprise victory, I personally cashed McDowell at 18-1 odds because he was climbing in our handicapping metrics. This week NASCAR’s Cup Series returns for another road course event with the running of the Go Bowling at the Glen. Once again, we will be ready to breakdown the best betting opportunities for road course racing at Watkins Glen International.
From a handicapping perspective, road course venues are favorable for bettors, especially this season since NASCAR eliminated the stage breaks. McDowell’s win last week may have been much more difficult if there were planned stage breaks creating numerous restarts and strategy possibilities. While we cannot guarantee cautions will be limited again this week, bettors should feel confident in the fact that this style of racing is advantageous for bettors. We simply have to target the best road course talents, those who have also shown strong historical trends at Watkins Glen, to be confident we can put together another profitable betting card.
Watkins Glen: Fast Facts
- Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Kyle Busch lead all active drivers with two career wins at Watkins Glen.
- Kyle Larson has won the last two races at Watkins Glen. Chase Elliott went back to back before that from 2018-2019.
- Martin Truex Jr, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and AJ Allmendinger are also former winners at the Glen.
- Chase Elliott has the best average finishing position (5.7) among all active drivers.
- Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick have both finished in the top 10 in each of their two career starts at the Glen.
- Kyle Busch has finished in the top 10 in 12 of the last 16 races at Watkins Glen
- There have been five cautions or less in each of the last five races at Watkins Glen
I have compiled performance metrics for the last five road course races, which can be found here at NASCARWagers. I would argue that the last five races are just as important as historical trends because we get metrics reflecting how drivers have performed at road courses with the Next Gen Car, which is still relatively new to the Cup Series. As you will see, Tyler Reddick, Michael McDowell, and Chase Elliott are the only drivers that have surpassed a 100-plus driver rating. Reddick has definitely been the best of the bunch over the last two years in the Next Gen Car. In fact, Reddick has won 3 times at the road courses going back to last year, which means he remains a top threat any time a road course venues shows up on the schedule.
When we consider our performance metrics and combine those indicators with historical trends at Watkins Glen, I believe that Chase Elliott remains the top threat this weekend. Despite having an off year that has been plagued by missed races, Elliott finished 2nd to McDowell last week and appears to be peaking at the right time. Watkins Glen has easily been Elliott’s best track since he arrived in the Cup Series. Therefore, I have a hard time ignoring his potential this weekend, especially since he needs a win to make the playoffs. The other top contenders that I would have on my radar this week include Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell. I believe both drivers have shown excellent results at Watkins Glen. Obviously, Larson has won the last two, but Bell could be a true dark horse.
