NASCAR’s Cup Series will visit one of the fastest tracks on the circuit this Sunday with the running of the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Last week, Chris Buescher delivered one of the biggest upsets of the season with his victory at Richmond Raceway. Prior to the green flag, Buescher was listed at 40-1 odds at most online sportsbooks in what could have yielded a huge payout! This week we will look for other valuable betting opportunities as our attention turns to an extremely fast 2.0-mile oval at Michigan.
From a handicapping perspective, Michigan is all about speed. It is considered one of the premier horsepower tracks on the schedule, which means our betting focus should be centered around the teams that have shown the best raw speed. Last week, Ford teams had their best weekend of the season with quality performances at Richmond. As many are aware, the Ford brigade has struggled significantly throughout the season, which makes this week’s test at Michigan noteworthy to see if the Ford teams have truly overcome their struggles.
Michigan: Fast Facts
- Ford has produced the last eight winners at Michigan International Speedway
- Kevin Harvick leads all active drivers with six career wins at Michigan, with 5 of those victories falling in the last seven races
- Kyle Larson (3), Joey Logano (3), Denny Hamlin (2), Kyle Busch, and Ryan Blaney are also former winners at Michigan
- Despite being winless at Michigan, Chase Elliott has the best average finishing position (8.0) among all active drivers
- Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex have both produced a 6.9 average finishing position over the last ten races at Michigan
- Kyle Larson won 3 straight races at Michigan from 2016-2017
- The race winner has started from the pole in 6 of the last 17 races (35.2%)
Personally, I don’t believe the struggles from the Ford manufacturers are over, and I think their horsepower concerns will come back to life on Sunday. In all truthfulness, I think everyone is behind the Toyotas in performance right now. As a result, I think we have to give considerable attention to the likes of Martin Truex Jr and Denny Hamlin, who have performed really well at Michigan in the last several years. Since I really like the speed from the Toyotas, I would also say that the 23XI duo of Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace could deserve some dark horse potential as well.
Love him or hate him, Wallace finished 2nd last year in the only Cup Series race at Michigan in the Next Gen Car. I would also add that Wallace has been showing excellent speed in the last few weeks, which seems to indicate he is trending in the right direction. As a result, I think Wallace provides excellent dark horse betting odds and can likely be targeted in H2H match-ups as well. Aside from the Toyotas, Kyle Larson would obviously be a top choice this week based on recent performance and track history. Kevin Harvick is another logical choice considering this is his best track in recent years. Unfortunately, I just don’t like the betting odds on either Harvick or Larson, despite the fact I believe both will run well this weekend.
