Last week, Chris Buescher scored his 3rd victory in the last five races by winning the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway. With Daytona in the rear-view, the playoff field has been set, which means 16 drivers will be fighting each week to keep their championship hopes alive. On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series will visit one of the toughest race tracks on the schedule for the Crown Royal Labor Day Weekend at Darlington Raceway. Unlike the dart throw methodology used last week at Daytona, this week’s race at Darlington should yield sharper betting opportunities and hopefully yield some nice profits.
The first thing that bettors should know is that Darlington Raceway is a driver’s racetrack. The meaning of a driver’s racetrack is essentially that the driver makes up the most speed or quickest lap times behind the wheel. Unlike most traditional ovals where setup and horsepower are critical towards a driver’s chances of winning, the talent behind the wheel is the biggest asset for a place like Darlington, where the track is extremely narrow and has minimal grip that wears significantly on tires every lap. Therefore, handicapping a place like Darlington is primarily geared towards historical data around the “drivers” that simply know how to get around this fickle speedway.
Darlington: Fast Facts
- Denny Hamlin (4) leads all active drivers with the most wins at Darlington. Hamlin also leads all drivers with the best average finishing position (7.7).
- Kevin Harvick (3), Erik Jones (2), Martin Truex (2), William Byron, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano are all former winners at Darlington.
- There have been six different winners in the last six races at Darlington.
- Kevin Harvick has the best average finishing position (6.4) over the last ten races at Darlington.
- Martin Truex Jr. has led 666 laps at Darlington over the last six races.
- Kyle Larson has finished in the runner-up position in 3 of his last six starts at Darlington.
- Erik Jones has two wins and 6 top 10 finishes in his last ten starts at Darlington.
- Joey Logano was the highest finisher in both Darlington races last season, finishing 1st and 4th.
If we consider the in-season performance trends combined with some of the historical narratives that I mentioned are very important towards handicapping Darlington Raceway, I believe Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. are the two guys that stand well above the field. Darlington is Hamlin’s favorite track and one of his best tracks on the NASCAR schedule. Meanwhile, Truex has been the best of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars throughout the majority of the season and has dominated the laps led/fastest lap categories over the last several races at Darlington. Therefore, I truly expect that everyone will be chasing the JGR duo once the green flag waves on Sunday.
Typically, I would not consider Darlington Raceway a venue that favors underdogs. As I alluded to above, Darlington usually favors the top drivers, which are usually the betting favorites. However, we have witnessed some surprise stories throughout the years. Erik Jones has pulled off two surprise wins in the last five years. Jones is not having a great season but should be on everyone’s radar in H2H match-ups due to how well he runs at Darlington. With that being said, I think this year’s surprise stories could come from names like Tyler Reddick or Brad Keselowski. Both drivers have been really strong at Darlington throughout their careers. Reddick thrives at the venues with minimal grip. Meanwhile, Keselowski’s chances are raised significantly this week based on how well RFK Racing has performed in recent weeks. I like Reddick and Keselowski both as drivers that can be targeted in all betting formats.
