Last week, we hit our 2nd race winner in the last 3 weeks with Kyle Larson’s victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. With the win, Larson secured his spot in the championship finale, which will take place in two weeks at Phoenix Raceway. This week, NASCAR’s Cup Series visits Homestead-Miami Speedway, one of my personal favorite tracks. Similar to Darlington, Homestead-Miami yields a very rugged surface and low-grip conditions. Therefore, this is often referred to as a driver’s track because the drivers who can carry the most speed through these low-grip conditions are usually those with the best talent and car control. Therefore, let’s take a look at the drivers that everyone should be spotlighting for this week’s 4EVER 400!
In our preview for last week’s race at Las Vegas, I advised that bettors should analyze in-season performance trends very closely because the speed at 1.5-mile tracks, like Vegas, is often reliable. For this week’s race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, I believe those same in-season performance trends are noteworthy, but perhaps historical trends are just as important this week. Homestead-Miami Speedway is a track that offers multiple grooves of racing, and the fastest line around the speedway can be right up against the wall. There are a handful of drivers that excel at “rim riding,” and they should be on everyone’s radar going into the weekend!
Homestead-Miami Speedway: Betting Notes
- Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with three career wins at Homestead.
- Kyle Busch (2), Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron, and Kyle Larson are also former winners at Homestead.
- Kevin Harvick has the best average finishing position (7.3) among active drivers through 22 career starts.
- Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top 3 positions in four of the last six races at Homestead.
- Kyle Busch has finished in the top 10 in 9 of the last ten races at Homestead.
- AJ Allmendinger finished 3rd in last year’s race with the Next Gen Car, which is his personal best for Homestead.
- The eventual race winner has started from the top 5 starting positions in five of the last six races at Homestead.
- There have been seven cautions or less in each of the last eight races at Homestead.
In terms of historical narratives, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., and Kyle Larson have produced the best consistency at Homestead throughout their careers. In fact, those three drivers are the only guys in the Cup Series who have produced a 100+ driver rating throughout their career at Homestead. With that being said, I don’t believe either Harvick or Truex has shown the recent speed to be considered top-level threats this year. Truex was among the fastest cars earlier this season but has struggled heavily in recent weeks.
