Through the first three weeks of the season, NASCAR’s top division has produced three surprise winners in the likes of Michael McDowell, Christopher Bell, and most recently William Byron. With the rise in young talent combined with a strong core of veteran drivers, the Cup Series is producing tremendous parity and eliminating the stigma that weekly favorites are the best betting options. Unlike previous years where surprise winners only occurred on the superspeedways, NASCAR’s competition is presenting better opportunities for bettors to cash winning tickets on legitimate dark horses rather than wasting money on overvalued risk in the form of weekly betting favorites.
The good thing about NASCAR betting is that you don’t need to hit every surprise winner. Sure it would be nice, but you only need to hit a couple of big winners to bring in huge money to ultimately cement profits for an entire season. On Sunday, we will get the opportunity for another payday when the green flag is waved for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. In last year’s South Point 400, which occurred in September at Las Vegas, Kurt Busch cashed at 35 to 1 odds which follows the theme of this year’s races. Perhaps another big payday looms on Sunday!
From a handicapping standpoint, this will only be the 2nd race on a 1.5-mile surface this year, which is where we are able to gauge teams’ intermediate speedway programs. Unlike last week’s race at Homestead which largely favored driver input, this week’s race at Las Vegas will heavily favor aerodynamics, chassis, and setup packages. Since we have not had a great opportunity to evaluate the 2021 team performances, across the Cup Series, for this style of racing, we should remain relatively conservative with it being so early in the racing/betting season.
With that being said, I still believe we have a few handicapping angles that provide sharp potential. With surprise winners and uncertainty through the first three races, bettors should take advantage of ranging odds, especially among some of the top names. For example, Team Penske cars have been excellent in early season races over the last few years. Joey Logano has won the last two spring races at Las Vegas, and Brad Keselowski has won 3 times at Vegas over the last ten races.
Therefore, Team Penske cars have half of the last ten events. I personally believe the Fords will be strong on the 1.5-mile layouts this season where tire wear is not a factor, and I believe last week’s race at Homestead provides some moments to support that narrative. Both Logano and Keselowski led the majority of the opening laps at Homestead before the track started transitioning into the night and tire wear became so important. Without that tire wear and track transition this week, I truly expect the Team Penske cars to be strong throughout the afternoon.
If another surprise winner is going to happen this week, I would throw out the name Matt DiBenedetto for bettors. DiBenedetto is part of the Team Penske alliance that I mentioned above which should have the speed to run up front. Additionally, DiBenedetto had his best performances of his career in 2020, with two runner-up finishes at both Vegas races. At 50 to 1 odds, why not throw some change on DiBenedetto? Another potential upset option is the #48 car of Alex Bowman. The #48 car had good speed last week at Homestead despite a somewhat disappointing 9th place finish. Bowman has improved every season throughout his Cup Series career and has historically run well at Vegas. Don’t be surprised if that happens again on Sunday!
