NASCAR’s Cup Series will take center stage this Sunday for the annual running of the All-Star Race. For the first time in history, Texas Motor Speedway will have the luxury of hosting this prestigious non-points paying event that will reward the winner with a million-dollar purse. Currently, 17 drivers have earned a ticket to the All-Star Race based on the criteria that drivers must have either won a race in the past year, be a previous series champion, or former winner of the All-Star Race. Needless to say, this race will feature the absolutely best drivers in NASCAR in a format that promises to bring excitement.
For the drivers that have not earned eligibility into the All-Star Race, the All-Star Open is a qualifying race held before the main event where drivers will attempt to “race their way in.” The Open has 22 drivers on the entry list and will award three tickets into the All-Star Race for each stage winner to set the All-Star field to 20 drivers plus an additional fan vote. Once the main event starts, NASCAR has implemented a wild but undoubtedly exciting format that will feature six rounds of racing with numerous field inverts to enhance the competition. In its entirety, the All-Star Race is composed of just 100 green flag laps. However, the numerous restarts and field inverts will make things extremely challenging.
From a betting standpoint, this week’s All-Star Race is a risky but potentially rewarding event. Personally, I believe this year’s format provides a better opportunity for the underdogs or at least drivers that are not the outright favorites. Throughout this season, Hendrick Motorsports drivers have been excellent on the 1.5-mile tracks under the 550 horsepower and high-downforce rules package. Kyle Larson compiled an absolutely dominating effort in the Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte just two weeks ago and went on to win against last week at Sonoma. In the Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte, Hendrick Motorsports cars took home four of the top five positions in the most impressive team performance in the historical history of the World 600.
Obviously, on the heels of that impressive performance, Kyle Larson is undoubtedly the driver to beat yet again this week. Larson is listed at mere 4-1 betting odds, and while I understand the reason he is heavily favored, I cannot justify betting Larson at such low odds in this wild All-Star Race format. Instead, I think we have to put some emphasis on “short-run” speed, drivers that excel on restarts and are masterful at driving through the field. This shootout style format will not favor those drivers that are not able to fire off quickly, which is in many ways the exact opposite of the 600.
As a result, I believe the better betting value is targeting the likes of Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott if we are forced to make selections among the top threats. Elliott has finished 1st or 2nd in each of the last three races and appears to be peaking. Meanwhile, Busch was the only driver to break up the Hendrick Motorsports brigade at the Coca Cola 600. Rowdy (Busch) is notoriously known as one of the best talents in the field at restarts and aggressive driving in traffic. I think that style will pay dividends in this race, and the No.18 has shown plenty enough speed to outright win this event. At 10-1 odds, Busch is the best probabilistic value in the field.
Because of the format that will be used this year, I would refrain from overextending betting risk this week. However, if you do want to throw some attention towards a lottery-style type selection, I would suggest Austin Dillon at near 40-1 odds. The Chevrolet teams have experienced a clear advantage on the 1.5-mile surfaces this year. Richard Childress Racing cars, between Dillon and Tyler Reddick, have shown a lot of speed with the improvement from Chevrolet and the combined efforts in their engine shop with Hendrick Motorsports. Dillon has historically had his best performances at the 1.5-mile venues and owns a win at Charlotte, which is a sister track to Texas. In this wild format, nothing is guaranteed among the top drivers, and if Dillon can hang around during the opening rounds, he could have a shot for the victory.
