NASCAR’s Cup Series will visit another first-time venue this Sunday with their long-awaited return to Road America for the running of the Jockey Made in America 250. Historically, the Cup Series has celebrated Independence Day on the shores of Daytona. However, that generational tradition was changed in 2020. NASCAR’s continued revamps to the series schedule include a return to Road America on Sunday for the first time in more than 50 years. Needless to say, this Sunday’s running on the lengthy 4.048-mile layout at Road America should be an entertaining return to Elkhart Lake that provides yet another opportunistic betting opportunity.
Fortunately for bettors, this Sunday’s return to Road America will officially be the 4th race of the season at a road course venue. In fact, this will be the 5th event if you count the preseason Busch Clash at Daytona’s Road Course. Therefore we can look at the performance trends from those prior events to compose a solid baseline of expectations going into Sunday’s race. The only unfortunate aspect to those prior observations includes the sheer dominance from Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson over the last several races. Larson has been dominant on a near-weekly basis this season, and Elliott remains the best road course talent in the Cup Series. Both drivers finished 1st and 2nd to each other in the last two road course races at Circuit of the Americas and Sonoma, with both drivers each picking up a victory.
While we can expect both Elliott and Larson to be top threats again for the victory at Road America, there is not a lot of value on either driver in terms of betting odds. In fact, both Elliott and Larson are listed at less than 4-1 odds which is extremely conservative from an odds-maker’s standpoint. It is not extremely uncommon to see a driver reach the 4-1 odds range as an outright betting favorite when they have tons of momentum or a prestigious track history. Both Elliott and Larson are listed at less than 4-1 odds, which speaks volumes about drivers’ expectations going into Road America. More importantly, I don’t disagree with those betting odds. Road America is not the most challenging road course venue, and speed plays an important factor in fast lap times. The Hendrick Motorsports cars have been ridiculously fast all year, and that only strengthens the prognosis for both Elliott and Larson.
We have been able to overcome unreasonable betting odds all season to produce a profit on a near-weekly basis. For this week’s races, we will likely have to put a major focus on H2H matchups to find betting value. Two of the drivers that I have on my radar to provide sharp value include both Joey Logano and Ross Chastain. Logano can be targeted in all formats because he has finished in the Top 5 in all three prior road course races. We know that Road America will yield a fierce battle for track position and if Logano can gain track position late, he is a strong dark horse pick especially considering how often the Team Penske cars gamble with strategy. Lastly, Ross Chastain is among my favorite H2H/fantasy targets this week. Chastain has posted top 10 finishes in the last two road course races, which includes the very challenging layout at Circuit of the Americas. Chastain is usually paired against bottom-tier drivers, and that should provide tremendous betting upside in the form of matchups.
