2021 Goodyear 400 Betting Odds, Tips, Picks

Last week at Kansas Speedway, Kyle Busch survived multiple late-race restarts to earn his 1st victory of the season. The victory maintained the Cup Series’ streak of new winners, which has now produced nine different winners through the opening 11 races. On Sunday, the Cup Series keeps the action going with a trip to Darlington Raceway for NASCAR’s “Throwback Weekend,” where the sport pays tribute to its prestigious history with throwback paint schemes at one of its most historic venues.

Capturing a victory at Darlington Raceway is an extremely prestigious driver accomplishment. Nicknamed the “Lady in Black” and “Too Tough to Tame,” Darlington has many monikers due to the difficulty it produces among drivers. The track surface is extremely abrasive, which causes significant tire wear. The surface is so abrasive that it provides virtually no grip, and yet Darlington has the most narrow racing surface in all of NASCAR. The low-grip and close-quarters conditions that produce close racing at high speeds and undeniable trouble when drivers make a mistake.

Despite the tough track conditions, Darlington favors the top drivers in the sport, and that is something bettors can rely on this weekend. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Darlington hosted three races during the 2020 season, which gives us a lot of recent performance observations. In those three races, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin were dominant. Harvick won 2 of the three races and finished 3rd in the other event. Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin captured the other victory and also posted a top 5 finish. Going into this Sunday’s race, Harvick and Hamlin are tied for the most victories (3) among active drivers at Darlington. With both drivers still seeking their first victory of the season, this will be a great opportunity to potentially see another new face in victory lane.

For bettors, it is important to understand that the Cup Series will be utilizing a different rules package than what was used in the 2020 races at Darlington. This week the Cup Series will utilize the low-downforce 750 horsepower package that is typically used at the short tracks and road courses. This change likely improves the chances of Martin Truex Jr, who is the only driver to win multiple races this season which both come under this same rules package. Truex is an excellent driver at tracks with significant tire wear due to his ability to manage long-run speed. Truex is a former Darlington winner (2016) and has been having a great season which elevates his chances going into Sunday’s event.

I would label Truex as a relatively sharp pick among the favorites this week. However, Truex would only be my 2nd option in the grand scheme of things. Kyle Larson remains this week’s top betting option in a potential smash opportunity on Sunday. Larson has been downright dominant on the intermediate speedways this season. Following a victory at Las Vegas, Larson had the fastest car last week at Kansas but was ultimately beat on pit strategy at the end of the event. Despite missing all three races at Darlington in 2020 due to suspension, Larson has finished 3rd or better in three of his last four starts at Darlington Raceway. With better equipment and performance going into Sunday’s event, Larson has all the driving tools to be downright dominant if they put another fast Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet on the track.

If you are looking for a more appropriate long-shot driver to target, I would check out Tyler Reddick at 50-1 odds. Reddick has many “wheelman” characteristics that share similarities to Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch. While he is still relatively inexperienced and in perhaps 2nd level equipment, Reddick is the type of driver that could make moves to the front at Darlington, especially if the high-groove comes into play. At 50-1 odds, he is definitely worth the consideration. Ultimately, the last few weeks of racing in the Cup Series have been wild with several different winners. The majority of our profits have been produced through H2H match-ups and prop bets. Reddick is a driver that can be targeted in all formats that should help bring profits to lineups on Sunday!

Goodyear 400 Betting Odds