Following a wild and controversial race last week at Indianapolis, NASCAR’s Cup Series will unleash 550 horsepower onto Michigan International Speedway for the running of the Firekeepers Casino 400. With just two races remaining in the regular season, there are still playoff spots that are up for grabs which should spice up the competition on Sunday. Typically, Michigan has held multiple dates on NASCAR’s annual calendar, but this Sunday’s Firekeepers Casino 400 will be the lone stop at NASCAR’s fastest non-superspeedway as drivers buckle up for high-speed racing.
For bettors, the Cup Series will utilize the 550 horsepower rules package that has been utilized at all tracks of 1.5 miles in length or greater. This week’s rules package is important to consider because the Cup Series has only used this package once since the end of June, and many people forget that some teams’ have shown varying performance trends between the two rules packages utilized this season. For example, Kevin Harvick is getting a lot of betting attention this week due to his prior success at Michigan. Harvick has won four of the last five races at Michigan, including the last three consecutive races, which is truly amazing for a large track that is heavily reliant upon speed and track position.
With that said, Harvick and Stewart-Haas Racing have struggled with the 550hp package this season. In fact, Harvick has struggled all season and remains winless despite recording a series’ leading nine victories last year. As a result of the performance struggles this season, I do not believe the sharp money should be on Harvick this week. Instead, I am looking at the Kyle’s in the field to provide our betting value. By two Kyle’s, I am referring to the likes of Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch, who have been extremely strong at the larger layouts throughout the 2021 season.
Obviously, Kyle Larson has been NASCAR’s hottest driver in 2021 and nearly pulled off a 2nd straight victory last week at Indianapolis. This season, Larson has been the best driver in the Cup Series, with the 550hp package producing an impressive 122.7 average driver rating. Additionally, Larson is extremely talented at these larger layouts where drivers have to minimize off-throttle time. At one point, Larson won 3 straight Michigan races from 2016-2017 with Chip Ganassi Racing. With Hendrick Motorsports strong performance this season, I believe we will see Larson return to a potentially dominant role in this week’s race.
If Larson does not get the job done, I believe the sharp value should be on Kyle Busch. After a quiet few weeks from “Rowdy,” Busch should have a great opportunity at Michigan this week if we can trust the performance trends. In fact, Busch is the only driver that has shown the speed to match the Hendrick Motorsports cars at the larger layouts. In the last five races utilizing the 550hp package, Busch has posted finishes of 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, and 2nd, which is simply amazing with today’s competitive parity. While Busch may have his hands full with Larson this week, he is a driver that should be targeted in all betting formats and should provide some really sharp value in terms of H2H opportunities!
