NASCAR’s Cup Series heads to the Monster Mile at Dover International Speedway on Sunday for the running of the Drydene 400. Last week, Martin Truex recorded his 3rd victory of the season in dominant fashion by leading 248 of 293 laps to win the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway. Simply put, Truex has been dominant in NASCAR’s 750HP low-downforce package that is typically run on speedways of 1 mile or less in length. In fact, all of Truex’s victories have come under the 750HP rules package, and he will once again be an intriguing favorite yet again on Sunday at the Monster Mile.
If you exclude the Bristol dirt race as an outlier, Truex has won 3 of the last four races under the low-downforce package. On Sunday, Truex and the thriving #19 team will have another advantageous opportunity at Dover, which is the site of Truex’s 1st career victory in 2007. Since that victory, Truex has captured two additional victories (2016 & 2019) at the Monster-Mile. Statistically, Dover is Truex’s best track where he has recorded 18 top 10 finishes in 30 career starts, including 9 top 5 finishes. When you consider the momentum that the #19 team has with this particular package combined with Truex’s past success at Dover, this could be another opportunity for the former champion to build on his tremendous start to the 2021 campaign.
Perhaps the bigger question is who can contend with the #19 team and perhaps steal the spotlight? Along with Truex, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Ryan Newman are all tied with the most Dover victories (3) among active drivers. Harvick has finished inside the top 5 in five of the last six starts at Dover, which begs betting consideration. Personally, I don’t believe the #4 team is where they need to be in terms of performance. Harvick is the only member from Stewart-Haas Racing to show speed in recent weeks, but it has not been enough to warrant his current betting odds.
The most obvious choices to push for a victory on Sunday surround the likes of Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin. Hamlin, the points leader, continues to post solid results each week and perhaps the most consistency of the frontrunners. Larson has arguably allowed victories to slip through his fingers in each of the last two weeks. Despite Truex’s dominance at Darlington, Larson was closing in the final laps but ran out of time. Despite missing the 2020 races at Dover, Larson maintains the best average finishing position (7.4) among active drivers. If we consider the speed the #5 team has shown this season, Larson is likely Truex’s biggest challenger yet again this weekend.
From a betting standpoint, Larson and Truex’s dominance in recent weeks is casting a shadow over the remaining competition, and I believe that bettors can use that to their advantage. Chase Elliott, NASCAR’s reigning Cup Series Champion, has been phenomenal at Dover throughout his career. Elliott has produced 7 top 5 finishes in 10 career starts. Despite those stats, Elliott is getting solid betting value due to a relatively slow start in 2021 combined with the Truex/Larson dominance previously mentioned. As a result, I believe this is an excellent opportunity to steal value from one of Dover’s best drivers over the last few years.
Beyond the popular names, there are a few others that bettors should keep on their radar. One of the sleepers that I will be willing to share upfront includes the #20 of Christopher Bell. If you look at last year’s results, Bell’s name will not stand out following subpar finishes of 22nd and 20th. However, Bell is starting to really shine with the #20 team at Joe Gibbs Racing. Bell has performed well in recent weeks and has an average running position inside the top 10. With better equipment this year, Bell is poised to exceed expectations at the Monster Mile, where he recorded two wins and a 4th place finish in 3 career Xfinity Series starts. If you are looking for a driver to target for sharp value in H2H match-ups or prop bets, keep the #20 on your radar!
