Following a rare off-week, NASCAR’s Cup Series will return to life this Saturday under the lights at Martinsville Speedway for the running of the Blu-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500. The last time we saw the Cup Series in action was on the dirt at Bristol Motor Speedway in what turned out to be a wild spectacle. Once the dirt settled, Joey Logano recorded his 1st victory of the season and extended NASCAR’s streak to 7 different winners through the first seven races. On Saturday, that streak will be put on the line when the green flag waves for exciting short-track racing at Martinsville!
From a historical standpoint, Denny Hamlin has easily been the most dominant driver at Martinsville among active drivers. Despite being in Jimmy Johnson’s shadow at the paperclip for the last several years, Hamlin has been phenomenal with five victories and 15 top 5 finishes through 30 career starts. Personally, I am surprised the #11 car has not found victory lane this season. Hamlin won 7 times in 2020 but has yet to find victory lane in 2021. What surprises me is that Hamlin has been running extremely well and consistently in the top 5 nearly every week. Unlike Kevin Harvick, who won nine times in 2020 and has vastly struggled this season, Hamlin has been performing well, and I would expect that his next win is just around the corner, especially with a great opportunity this Saturday at one of his best tracks.
Obviously, betting odds do not allow much value for Hamlin or Martin Truex this week. Truex has become one of the better short-track drivers in the sport and is fresh off his 1st career win at Phoenix just four weeks ago using the same rules package. Truex has also scored two of the last three victories at Martinsville, including the 2020 Blu-Emu Pain Relief 500. From an odds standpoint, there is a log jam among the top favorites between Truex, Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano. All of those drivers are former winners at Martinsville and easily have the talent to contend again this Saturday. With that being said, I believe Truex and Keselowski have performed the best under the 750HP package that will be utilized this week. Keselowski won 3 times under this package in 2020. When you combine that statement with the fact that Keselowski is a two-time winner at Martinsville and recorded 5 straight top 5 finishes at the half-mile paperclip, he should get some major attention this week.
In terms of betting opportunities, 2021 has been the year of the underdog thus far, producing surprise winners from the likes of Michael McDowell, Christopher Bell, William Byron, and we could even argue Ryan Blaney’s victory at Atlanta was not expected. If that is to happen again this week, Alex Bowman gets my tip of the cap. Bowman has improved significantly at the short-tracks, which resulted in two 6th place results at Martinsville last year. The #48 team has a good foundation for Martinsville in terms of setup/notes that should benefit Bowman going into the weekend. At 25-1 odds, Bowman has the type of value we seek in dark horse candidates. Lastly, keep Ryan Blaney on your radar this week as well. Blaney has been fantastic at Martinsville in recent races with four straight top 5 finishes, including two runner-up performances in 2020. Blaney’s betting odds (+800) were very conservative at opening this week, but I expect his odds will improve as we move closer to Saturday.
If you have trouble finding value in potential winners, do not worry. H2H match-ups have continued to produce the sharpest betting value for handicappers this season. At the dirt race at Bristol, I covered 3 of 4 H2H match-ups for a 6 unit profit. I firmly expect to target H2H match-ups aggressively again this week because Martinsville is a track where we can combine several critical handicapping angles into a successful strategy for producing profits; granted we avoid bad luck in the process. Therefore, feel free to follow me at NASCARWagers.com for more sharp picks once match-ups and other props are listed closer to race time!
