Last week, Kevin Harvick scored his 4th victory of the season by winning the Brickyard 400. The victory was Harvick’s 4th checkered flag of the season, which tied him with Denny Hamlin for the most in the Cup Series. In fact, Hamlin and Harvick have dominated the last several races at the “horsepower” tracks of Pocono and Indianapolis. After both drivers finished 1st and 2nd in both Pocono races, Hamlin was leading Harvick in the final laps last Sunday before a tire blew on the No. 11 car, which ended his run for another victory. Still, it was another dominant performance for both Harvick and Hamlin, who remain the hottest drivers in the sport. This week the Cup Series visits Kentucky Speedway for the running of the Quaker State 400 marking the first race on a track less than 2 miles since Homestead in early June.
At the 1.5-mile tracks, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin have been equally as dominant as we witnessed at Pocono and Indianapolis in recent weeks. Hamlin scored wins at Homestead, and Harvick earned a victory at Atlanta, which was the last two races on 1.5-mile layouts. Therefore, we should not expect any significant changes from the overall favorites this week. However, I will warn bettors that Kentucky Speedway is significantly different than the likes of Homestead and Atlanta. The two latter tracks have abrasive surfaces that produce heavy tire wear, and the tracks really favor the driver because of the low-grip surfaces. On the other hand, Kentucky was repaved and reconfigured in 2016, which ultimately yields a lot of grips. Therefore, we will look to favor the cars with the best overall speed and those cars that have been trimmed out (downforce) as our primary targets because those drivers should emerge at the front of the field.
Betting Targets
Despite Joe Gibbs Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing’s success in recent weeks at Pocono and Indianapolis, I expect the Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsports cars to be more successful this week to provide some additional challengers at the front of the field. It’s hard to ignore the run that Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin have put together, meaning I would not bet against those drivers. However, I do believe we will have a more significant array of challengers at Kentucky based on the circumstantial evidence. If you look at the prior 1.5 mile tracks that share some similarities to Kentucky like Charlotte and Las Vegas, you will find that the Team Penske drivers were extremely strong in those races.
As a result, Brad Keselowski (+800) and Ryan Blaney (+1000) immediately become prime betting targets this week. Odds for both drivers can be found at MyBookie. Blaney posted a runner-up finish at Kentucky in 2018 and has been very impressive on the 1.5-mile layouts all year. Meanwhile, Keselowski has been fantastic at Kentucky Speedway. Keselowski has three victories at Kentucky, which is the most all-time. Kyle Busch and Martin Truex are the only other drivers with multiple wins. The #2 team has been one of the most underrated performers throughout 2020 with two victories and 6 top 5 finishes, including a 4th last week at Indianapolis. If you combine the speed that Team Penske has shown at these layouts with their success at Kentucky, Keselowski is a strong play for Sunday’s race.
Dark Horses
A few big underdogs nearly struck at Indianapolis last week. Matt Kenseth finished in the runner-up position and closed at 88 to 1 odds. With the opportunity of a huge payout looming, I have a few dark horses that deserve your betting attention this week. For starters, Erik Jones (+3300) should be targeted in all formats. Granted, Jones’ luck has not been great in recent weeks with a blown tire at the Brickyard and a few other incidents. However, the #20 team has shown great speed, and I believe he deserves some dark horse consideration for the 2nd straight week. Through 3 career starts at Kentucky, Jones has posted finishes of 6th, 7th, and 3rd. Jones’ 5.3 average finishing position is 2nd in the Cup Series behind Kyle Busch’s incredible 4.7 mark over the last ten races. At solid odds XXX, Jones should be on all betting radars this week.
Another underdog that should be targeted in all match-ups includes the driver of the No. 47 in Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Stenhouse has not been overly impressive in recent weeks, but that is why he will be a sharp bet on Sunday. I mentioned earlier that I expect the Chevrolets to be better this week, mainly because this is a better track layout for their chassis and setups. If you look back at Las Vegas and Charlotte, Stenhouse was really strong in those races with a pair of top 5 finishes. Kentucky presents the perfect bounce-back opportunity for this #47 team that has semi-struggled in recent weeks. More importantly, Stenhouse is usually paired against bottom-tier drivers, and that is why he holds sharp H2H value for the Quaker State 400!
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