Fresh off the heels of Wednesday night’s All-Star Race, NASCAR’s Cup Series makes a quick turnaround on Sunday with the running of the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Last week, rookie Cole Custer delivered one of the biggest upsets in recent memory with a victory at Kentucky Speedway. Custer drove from 6th to 1st on the final restart as the leaders were battling and earned a huge underdog victory at 300 to 1 odds. As we approach another 1.5-mile venue this week at Texas, we are looking to target another potential big winner!
In order for an underdog to hit for the 2nd straight week, drivers will have to find a way to beat Kevin Harvick this week at Texas. Harvick’s four wins are tied with Denny Hamlin for the most in the Cup Series this season. This week, Harvick visits Texas Motor Speedway, where he has won three of the last five races, including a runner-up finish as well. The #4 team has shown the best aerodynamic speed this season among Cup Series competition and scored a win at Atlanta earlier this year. While Atlanta and Texas differ in grip level and tire fall off, both tracks are very similar in layout and banking which should help the #4 team alleviate setup concerns in the absence of practices.
The best competitors on the 1.5-mile tracks this season revolve around guys like Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, and Ryan Blaney, who are all live betting targets this Sunday. Elliott is fresh off a win in Wednesday night’s All-Star Race and performed great back at Charlotte, which most closely resembles Texas Motor Speedway. Personally, I like Blaney’s chances as he continues to show some of the best speed in the garage, and the Fords seem to have the current edge in aerodynamic speed. However, when we move into the underdog discussion, I believe all bettors should take notice of Stewart-Haas Racing. The SHR cars have found additional speed in recent weeks, and they have truly been tough to beat. Cole Custer’s 300 to 1 victory last week was surprising but perhaps not too shocking given the way the Stewart-Haas Racing Fords have performed in recent weeks.
This week the Stewart-Haas Racing driver that has my betting attention is Aric Almirola at 22 to 1 odds. Almirola has been phenomenal in recent weeks, with five top-five finishes in the last six races. At the most recent Texas race last November, Almirola led 62 laps en route to a runner-up finish under this same rules package. With the additional speed and setup notes in favor, Almirola is a must-play option at 22 to 1 odds via MyBookie this week and likely should be targeted in all H2H formats. Additionally, teammate Clint Bowyer also deserves some betting consideration this week. Bowyer finished 2nd in the spring race at Texas last March under the same rules package as well, which cannot be ignored. The No. 14 team has not been quite as strong on the 1.5-mile venues to this point in the season, but the speed from all of the Stewart-Haas Racing cars cannot be denied. At 50 to 1 odds, Bowyer is another big underdog that could be in contention for a victory in the closing laps on Sunday.
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