NASCAR’s Cup Series will conclude the regular season this weekend with the running of the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway. Last week, the two most dominant drivers in the sport captured wins at Dover International Speedway. Denny Hamlin won the opening race in the Drydene 311, capturing his 6th checkered flag of the year. Then on Sunday, Kevin Harvick scored his 7th win of the season in race #2 of the Drydene 311. Weekly betting favorites like Hamlin and Harvick have dominated throughout the year, limiting bettors’ profits. However, NASCAR’s return to Daytona and superspeedway racing presents some of the best odds value of the season which will yield huge profit potential for this Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400!
The beauty of superspeedway racing is that it is truly the most unpredictable style of racing on the planet. The draft brings parity to some of the more inferior teams which level the playing field. Not to mention, one wrong move can create the “Big One” and take out numerous cars. The fastest car rarely wins at Daytona but rather the driver that can position themselves for an opportunity in the closing laps. From a handicapping standpoint, this can be perceived as a nightmare. After all, our handicapping goal is to take advantage of sharp betting value and find probable outcomes that beat the odds. For this style of racing, those concepts are impossible. The good news for bettors is that superspeedway racing provides much better odds as opposed to traditional ovals. Because we have so much value in betting odds this week, we can take some chances to attack this unpredictable style of racing in hopes to yield a superior payout!
Denny Hamlin has been one of the best superspeedway drivers in recent years and has won two of the last three races at Daytona, including this year’s Daytona 500. Hamlin is a deserving favorite this week, and he is priced fairly at 11 to 1 odds at 5Dimes. While Hamlin is an obvious choice among the favorites this week, betting odds provide plenty of potential targets. A couple of my favorite picks in the realm of underdogs include Hendrick Motorsports teammates Alex Bowman and William Byron, who are both listed at 30 to 1 odds. Over the last five races at Daytona, Bowman has compiled the 2nd best average driver rating (90.7) among active drivers, yet his superspeedway talent is largely overlooked. The same can also be said for Byron, who has run well at the superspeedway tracks but does not have the finishes to mirror the performance. In my opinion, Byron may be the most underrated superspeedway talent in the Cup Series, but perhaps Ricky Stenhouse Jr deserves to be in that argument. Either way, Bowman and Byron are value steals at 30 to 1 odds.
One of the keys to being successful at superspeedway races involves betting strategy. This style of racing is extremely unpredictable, and I often see bettors adding unnecessary risk to their betting cars. For example, H2H match-ups should be avoided entirely this week. Even if you choose the correct driver in match-ups, one wrong move can wipe out several innocent drivers and absolutely destroy H2H value in the blink of an eye. I will discuss the best betting strategy for this week’s Daytona races in my previews later this week. Before I conclude, let me throw one last Hail Mary at bettors for a lottery-style long shot in the form of Ty Dillon in the #13 car. Dillon is currently listed at 110 to 1 odds, which yields a very solid value for a driver that has finished inside the top 6 in three of his last four starts at Daytona. If you can afford a few dark horses on your betting card this week, ensure that Dillon is among them!
