Brad Keselowski became the fourth Sprint Cup driver with multiple point-race wins this season with last Sunday’s crash-filled victory at Talladega. Kyle Busch survived the wreckage to finish second and Austin Dillon turned in a good run by taking third. I went with Kevin Harvick at +1200 betting odds as my top-valued pick, but he did not fare so well at 15th in the final standings.
The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Saturday night’s race along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by Bovada.
This week Kevin Harvick is one of two top favorites to win at +500 betting odds. The No. 4 car dominated the series in Top 3 runs last season including 13 runner-up finishes, but it has been hit or miss with this team through the first 10 events this year. Harvick did win at Phoenix followed by a second-place finish at Fontana, but over the last five events he has only made his way into the Top 5 once at Richmond. Going back over his recent performance at this week’s track, he started a solid five-race run with a victory in the second race here in 2013. Harvick has finished second in this event the past two seasons so maybe he is due.
The other favorite to win at +500 is Jimmie Johnson. He continued his run as one of the more streaky Sprint Cup drivers this season with a 22nd-place finish at Talladega after fading to 23rd at Bristol earlier in April. Prior to that, the No. 48 car won at Atlanta and at Fontana in a span of four Sprint Cup events. Heading into Kansas, Johnson comes in as the defending champion in this event to go along with a third-place finish in the second race here. Overall, he has won here three times as part of a successful average finishing position of 8.7.
There are four +800 second-favorites to win on this week’s list including one of my favorites Matt Kenseth. The No. 20 team has gotten off to a very slow start this season with just two Top 10 finishes, but he remains the kind of driver that can win anytime he gets behind the wheel. To put things in better perspective, Kenseth went winless in the 2014 season before posting five point-race victories last year. There is some value in his odds to win this week with a victory in this event in 2013 and a respectable sixth-place finish in last season’s race.
- Jimmie Johnson No.48 +450
- Kevin Harvick No.4 +550
- Joey Logano No.22 +650
- Matt Kenseth No.20 +700
- Kyle Busch No.18 +700
- Carl Edwards No.19 +750
- Brad Keselowski No.2 +1000
- Martin Truex, Jr. No.78 +1100
- Dale Earnhardt, Jr. No.88 +1200
- Denny Hamlin No.11 +1400
- Kurt Busch No.41 +1400
- Chase Elliott No.24 +1800
- Kasey Kahne No.5 +2200
- Austin Dillon No.3 +3300
- Kyle Larson No.42 +4000
- Jamie McMurray No.1 +5000
- Tony Stewart No.14 +5000
- Clint Bowyer No.15 +6600
- Ryan Newman No.31 +6600
- Greg Biffle No.16 +10000
- Ryan Blaney No.21 +10000
- Regan Smith No.7 +15000
- A. J. Allmendinger No.47 +25000
- Aric Almirola No.43 +25000
- David Ragan No.23 +25000
- Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. No.17 +25000
- Trevor Bayne No.6 +25000
- Casey Mears No.13 +50000
- Danica Patrick No.10 +50000
- Brian Scott No.44 +100000
- Chris Buescher No.34 +100000
- Cole Whitt No.98 +100000
- Joey Gase No.32 +100000
- Josh Wise No.30 +100000
- Landon Cassill No.38 +100000
- Matt DiBenedetto No.93 +100000
- Michael Annett No.46 +100000
- Reed Sorenson No.55 +100000
- Michael McDowell No.95 +100000
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