The Yankees are rolling into PNC Park with their bats absolutely cooking, putting up 9+ runs in four of their seven games this season. With yesterday’s 9-4 Yankees win already in the books and the wind set to blow out again, this total looks way off considering what we’re seeing from both squads early this spring.
Sharp Money Take
The total opened at 9 and has been nudged up to 9.5 with plus money on the over, suggesting some reverse line movement. The sharps aren’t rushing to the window on either side yet, but with the Yankees crushing overs at a 5-2 clip this season, there’s serious value on the high side of this number.
Key Matchup Analysis
Bailey Falter takes the hill for Pittsburgh, and the southpaw got absolutely torched in his only appearance against the Yankees last September, coughing up 4 runs in just 3 innings. His 4.00 ERA might look decent on paper, but he’s sporting a troubling 1-4 record in his last 5 starts, and that Yankees lineup is absolutely lethal against lefties.
The Yankees counter with Marcus Stroman, who hasn’t been producing quality starts lately. His 4.91 runs allowed per 9 innings isn’t inspiring confidence, especially with Pittsburgh’s offense showing signs of life yesterday despite their overall struggles (2.88 runs per game).
Situational Factors
The Yankees are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games and have gone over in 5 of their 7 games this season. They’re absolutely mashing right now, with offensive explosions of 9, 9, 12, and 20 runs already this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh pitching has yielded 5 runs per game on average.
This also sets up as a perfect bounce-back spot for the Pirates’ offense. After seeing Yankees pitching yesterday, they should have a better approach today, especially with their backs against the wall at 2-6 on the season.
Statistical Edges
The numbers are screaming over in this matchup:
- Yankees scoring 8.86 runs per game (2nd MLB)
- Pirates allowing 5.00 runs per game (22nd MLB)
- Pittsburgh’s starting pitching has a bloated 5.09 ERA with a troubling 1.43 WHIP
- The Yankees bullpen has been vulnerable with a 5.47 ERA
- Falter’s last appearance vs. NYY: 3 IP, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 HR (20.7 pitches per inning)
