The Bronx Bombers head into today’s rubber match looking to take this three-game set after splitting the first two against a struggling Rays squad. We’ve got a juicy lefty-righty matchup featuring Max Fried, who’s cooking right now, against Ryan Pepiot, who’s been serving up some long balls lately.
Sharp Money Take
The books opened this around Yankees -145 before money pushed it to -160, telling us the sharps see value on New York here. What’s really interesting is the run line, where you’re getting plus money (+105) on the Yankees laying 1.5 runs. That’s a pretty tasty number considering Fried’s current form and the fact Tampa’s dropped four of their last five.
There’s been some reverse line movement on the total, which opened at 8 at most books before getting pushed to 8.5. The public is expecting runs, especially with Pepiot’s recent struggles keeping the ball in the yard.
Key Matchup Analysis
Max Fried is locked in right now, posting a stellar 1.87 ERA over his last three starts, including 6.2 solid innings against KC just five days ago where he fanned 7 while walking only 2. His command has been impeccable – 24 Ks to just 3 BBs over his last three outings.
Pepiot, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction. He’s sporting a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts and has been particularly homer-prone, allowing a concerning 5 long balls in just his last 2 outings. The Yankees’ power bats must be licking their chops at this juicy matchup.
What jumps off the page is Fried’s history against Tampa – in two career starts, he’s dominated with a microscopic 0.69 ERA, allowing just 7 hits in 13.2 innings while striking out 14 Rays. It’s worth noting that these starts came back in 2020 and 2021 when he was with Atlanta, so this data point comes with an asterisk given how much roster turnover Tampa has had since then. Still, Fried’s current form suggests he can replicate that success today.
Situational Factors
Both bullpens have been taxed recently. The Yankees’ relievers have pitched 15.1 innings over their last three games, while Tampa’s pen has logged 13.2 frames in the same span. If either starter falters early, we could see some tired arms coming in.
The scheduling spot favors New York, who’s riding a nice 5-1 SU run in their last six games. Meanwhile, the Rays are just 1-4 SU in their last five contests and look like a team pressing.
Statistical Edges
The offensive comparison isn’t even close right now. New York is plating 5.70 runs per game (3rd in MLB) compared to Tampa’s 4.20 (16th). The Yankees’ team OPS is significantly higher, and they’re getting production up and down the lineup.
Where it gets even more interesting is looking at Tampa’s struggles against lefties this season. While the sample size is small, their 3-2 record against southpaws looks deceptively decent – they’ve actually been outscored in those matchups.
Defensively, Tampa has the slight edge, allowing 3.70 runs per game (7th) compared to New York’s 4.30 (14th). But with Fried on the mound, that gap should narrow considerably today.
