The Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays are set for a decisive game in their three-game series, after splitting the first two matchups. Right-handers Luis Garcia of the Astros and Jose Berrios of the Blue Jays, both with less-than-stellar ERA’s, will face off on the mound. Let’s break down the MLB betting odds and see how to play this game for our free baseball betting pick.
MLB Betting Odds
Houston opened at around -115 over Toronto, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action moved the Astros to -120.
Blue Jays-Astros MLB Betting Preview
The Astros took the series opener on Monday night, winning 9-2 as +105 underdogs against Kevin Gausman. The Blue Jays rebounded with a 4-2 victory on Tuesday, with even odds. Toronto has gone 6-3 over their last nine games, while Houston is 3-4 in their last seven outings. The Blue Jays claimed last year’s season series against the Astros, winning four out of six matchups.
Wednesday’s Pitching Match-Up
Garcia has yet to post a quality start this season, allowing 12 runs and 19 hits, including three home runs, over 14 innings in his three starts. The Astros are 0-3 with Garcia on the mound, with the over going 2-1. Last year, Garcia faced the Blue Jays twice, giving up seven runs and four home runs in 12 innings, with Houston splitting those games.
Berrios is also without a quality start this year. Last Friday, he held Tampa Bay to one run and four hits in six innings, helping the Blue Jays secure a 6-3 win. However, in his previous two starts, Berrios allowed 12 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings, resulting in two Toronto losses. In his only start against the Astros last year, Berrios gave up just one run and seven hits in 5 2/3 innings, contributing to a 2-1 Blue Jays victory.
Splits With the Sticks
Toronto is batting .268 against right-handed pitching this season, boasting a .339 team OBP and a .432 team slugging percentage. Houston is hitting .246/.328/.358 against right-handers, but the lineup is missing some key regulars, and others are dealing with injuries.
The Bullpens
The Astros’ bullpen has a 3.55 ERA this season, along with a 1.23 WHIP and a 3.45 K/BB ratio. The Blue Jays’ pen holds a 3.41 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 2.76 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
Toronto went 80-50 against right-handed starters last year and is 7-4 against them this season. Houston went 64-44 against righties last year but is 6-7 this season.
Totals Report
- Overs are 9-8 in Blue Jays games this season.
- Overs are 12-6 in Astros games.
- Overs are 9-3 at Minute Maid Park this season.
