The World Series champion Dodgers and the NL Central-leading Cardinals hook up for an interesting three-game series at Chavez Ravine beginning Monday night. Newcomer Trevor Bauer, who hasn’t had too much luck so far for his new outfit, gets the call for Los Angeles against Jack Flaherty for St. Louis. The line on this game steamed LA in the early betting, but is it too much? And how are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Monday’s baseball betting odds opened Los Angeles and Bauer at around -165 over St. Louis and Flaherty, with an over/under of 6.5 runs. Early betting action then drove the Dodgers up a quarter to -190 and bumped that total to seven.
Cardinals-Dodgers MLB Betting Preview
St. Louis just took three of four games at Arizona over the weekend, missing out on the sweep by losing Sunday’s series finale 9-2. But just before that, the Cardinals lost a series at the White Sox, and just before that, they lost a series to the Cubs. So St. Louis is 1-2 over its last three series and 5-5 over its previous ten games.
At 30-23 overall, the Cardinals lead the NL Central by a half-game over the second-place Cubs. St. Louis is also playing ahead of pace against its season wins over/under of 86.5.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, just lost three of four games at home to rival San Francisco over the weekend, losing Sunday’s series finale 5-4. The Dodgers won the opener of that series, then lost the last three games. Before that, the Dodgers split two games at Houston, but just before that, they won four series in a row and 12 of 13 games.
At 31-22 overall, Los Angeles sits in third place in the NL West, 2.5 games behind first-place San Diego. The Dodgers are also behind schedule playing against their season wins O/U of 102.5, which was the highest number on that board.
Monday’s Pitching Match-Up
New Dodger Bauer is a gaudy 9/11 on quality starts this season and working on a run of four in a row.
Last Wednesday, he held Houston to two runs on four hits and four walks through six innings, although Los Angeles lost that game 5-2. And over his last four starts, he’s allowed just four earned runs and 12 hits through 25 1/3 innings, with ten walks and 33 strikeouts.
The Dodgers are only 5-6 with Bauer this season, but they could easily be three or four games better than that.
In his most recent career start against St. Louis, back in 2019 when he was with Cincinnati, Bauer got clipped for six runs through just four frames of a 10-6 Reds loss.
By our strict standards, Flaherty is 6/10 on quality starts this year and three for his last four. Last Tuesday, he gave up seven runs, although only three were earned, and six hits through just 3 2/3 innings of an 8-3 Cardinals loss to the White Sox. But over his three starts previous to that, he only allowed two runs and 11 hits through 19 innings.
The Cardinals are 9-1 with Flaherty this season, which is about one game better than they should be.
Over four career starts against Los Angeles, two in 2018 and two in 2019, Flaherty allowed just three runs through 25 innings. Thanks to some poor run support St. Louis only managed to split those four games.
Splits With the Sticks
St. Louis is batting .230 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .301 team OBP and a .382 team slugging percentage.
Los Angeles is batting .250/.350/.420 against RH pitching this season. Numbers like those lead us to rank this lineup among the top five in the Bigs in this split. However, the Dodgers are already operating without SS Cory Seager (.307 last season), and now OF Mookie Betts (16 HR last year) is listed as questionable for Monday (illness).
- Get more details: STL/LAD 5/31/21 Matchup Stats
The Bullpens
The St. Louis bullpen owns a 4.12 ERA this season, along with a 1.41 WHIP and a 1.62 K/BB ratio.
The LA bullpen, which we ranked as the best in Baseball last year, owns a 3.90 ERA this season, with a 1.34 WHIP and a 2.11 K/BB ratio.
Cardinals-Dodgers MLB Betting Trends
- The Cardinals are 15-13 on the road this season.
- The Dodgers are 17-9 at home this season.
- The Cardinals are 23-20 vs. right-handed starters this season.
- The Dodgers are 20-16 vs. RH starters this season.
- The Cardinals are 11-13 as underdogs this season.
- The Dodgers are 17-6 as favorites of -190 or more this season.
Totals Report
Overs are 25-24 in Cardinals games this season.
Overs are 28-24 in Dodgers games this season.
Overs are 14-10 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season.
