Division leaders continue a four-game weekend series when the Red Sox meet the Mariners at Fenway Park Friday night. Boston went off this season playing against a wins over/under of 80.5 but leads the AL East in the early going. Seattle, meanwhile, is playing against an O/U of 72.5 but leads the AL West. The Mariners also took the opener of this series Thursday night in extra innings. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Friday’s baseball betting lines opened Boston and Martin Perez at around -140 over Seattle and Yusei Kikuchi, with an over/under of 9.5. Early betting action then dipped that line to -135.
Mariners-Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
Seattle grabbed the opener of this series Thursday night 7-3 in 10 innings. The Mariners actually trailed 2-0 and did not have a hit into the sixth inning, then tied the game with a couple walks and a double. Seattle later won the game with four runs in the tenth.
The Mariners cashed in as +160 underdogs on the betting odds Thursday night, and the game played over a total of nine runs thanks to Seattle’s 10th-inning outburst.
Earlier this week the Mariners split two games at home with the Dodgers, and going back a bit further Seattle is 6-2 over its last eight games.
At 12-7 overall the Mariners are tied with Oakland for first place in the AL West.
Boston split two games at home with Toronto earlier this week, and going back a bit further the Sox are only 3-5 over their last eight games. At 12-8 overall Boston leads the AL East by a game and a half over second-place Tampa Bay.
Friday’s Pitching Match-Up
Lefty Perez is 0/3 on quality starts this season. Last Sunday he got touched for four runs and seven hits through just 3 2/3 innings of a 5-1 Boston loss to the White Sox. And in his two starts previous to that he gave up five runs and nine hits through 10 innings. So on the season Perez has allowed nine runs on 16 hits and five walks through 13 2/3 innings.
And yet the Red Sox are 2-1 with Perez this year.
This will be Perez’ first action against Seattle since 2018, when as a Ranger he gave up eight ER over four starts, covering 18 2/3 innings. Texas won three of those four games.
Fellow southpaw Kikuchi, by our tough standards, is 1/3 on quality starts this season. Last Friday he gave up five runs and six hits through seven innings of a 6-5 Mariners win over Houston. And in his two starts previous to that he allowed five runs through 12 innings, with 16 strikeouts. So on the season Kikuchi has allowed 10 runs on 17 hits and six walks through 19 innings.
Seattle is 1-2 with Kikuchi this season.
In his only career start against Boston, back in 2019, Kikuchi allowed three runs – two earned – through six innings of a game the Mariners eventually lost 7-6.
Splits With the Sticks
Seattle is batting just .183 this season against left-handed pitching, with a .291 team OBP and a .331 team slugging percentage.
Boston is batting .271/.307/.449 vs. LH pitching this season.
- Get more details: Seattle at Boston Matchup Stats
The Bullpens
The Mariners bullpen owns a 2.62 ERA this season, third-best in the Majors, along with a 1.03 WHIP and a 2.10 K/BB ratio.
The Red Sox pen owns a 3.18 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and a 2.25 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
- Favorites are 124-121 in MLB this season.
- Favorites are 88-155 against the run line this season.
Totals Report
- Overs are 10-8 in Mariners games this season.
- Overs are 11-9 in Red Sox games this season.
- Unders are 151-119 in MLB this season.
