The Dodgers carry the best record in Baseball into a four-game NL West rivalry series with San Diego at Chavez Ravine starting Thursday night. But the Padres won the series the last time they visited LA. How are we playing this game for our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Thursday’s MLB betting odds opened LA at around -195 over San Diego, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then bumped that line up to -200 and dipped that total to 7.5.
The Dodgers could also be found “getting” around +100 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.
Padres vs. Dodgers Set-Up
San Diego just split two games at home with Baltimore, losing Tuesday’s series finale 8-5. The Padres then had Wednesday off.
Just before that San Diego lost two of three games to San Francisco; just before that the Padres dropped two of three to the Mets; and just before that they lost two of three to the Cubs. Going back a bit further San Diego is 0-5-1 over its last six series and 5-12 over its last 17 games.
At 50-57 overall the Padres trail the division-leading Dodgers by 19.5 games in the NL West, and they’re 6.5 games and several teams behind Washington in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, just took two of three games at Colorado, winning Wednesday’s series rubber match 5-1. In the prior series, the Dodgers took two of three from the Nationals. Going back a bit further LA is 3-1 over its last four series and 6-4 over its last ten games.
At 71-39 overall the Dodgers lead the NL West by 15 games over the second-place Giants, and they’re 6.5 games up on Atlanta in the battle for the best record in the National League.
Los Angeles leads the season series with San Diego five games to four.
Thursday’s Starting Arms
Lefty Kershaw, by our strict standards, is 12/18 on quality starts this season, working on a run of four in a row. Last Sunday he held Washington to two runs and three hits through six innings of a 9-3 Los Angeles victory. And over his last four starts, he’s allowed just five runs – four earned – and 14 hits through 25 innings, with 35 strikeouts.
The Dodgers are 14-4 with Kershaw this season, 3-0 over his last three starts.
In three starts already this season against San Diego Kershaw allowed seven ER and 16 hits through 20 innings. Los Angeles won two of those three games.
Fellow southpaw Lucchesi is 6/20 on quality starts this year but only one for his last five. Last Saturday he held San Francisco to one run and two hits through six innings, although the Padres lost that game 2-1. But over his previous five starts, he gave up 17 runs and 29 hits through 26 innings.
San Diego is 9-11 with Lucchesi this season, 0-3 over his last three starts.
In two starts this season against the Dodgers Lucchesi allowed six runs and 11 hits over 11 1/3 innings. The Padres split those two games.
Thursday’s Batting Splits
San Diego is batting .248/.326/.444 against left-handed pitching this season. But San Diego also just traded a big stick in Franmil Reyes (27 HR).
Los Angeles is batting .254/.333/.440 against LH pitching this season.
The Bullpens
The Padres bullpen owns a 4.53 ERA this season and a 1.31 WHIP while allowing a .742 OPS.
The Dodgers pen owns a 4.06 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP while allowing a .697 OPS.
Totals Report
- Unders are 50-49 in Padres games this season.
- Overs are 53-52 in Dodgers games this season.
- Unders are 25-24 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season.
- Unders are 6-3 in Padres-Dodgers games this season.
- Get more details: Padres at Dodgers MLB Match-up Stats
