After splitting the first two games of this best-of-three National League wild-card series, the Mets and Padres play a deciding rubber match Sunday night at Citi Field. Chris Bassitt gets the call for New York here against Joe Musgrove for San Diego, but it’ll be all hands on deck for both teams.
Which way are we going here with our free baseball betting pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Sunday’s wild-card baseball betting lines opened New York and Bassitt at around -125 over San Diego and Musgrove, with an over/under of 6.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Mets 15 cents to -140.
New York opened this wild-card series as a -175 favorite to win it, with San Diego getting +155 as the underdog. So bettors who backed the Padres on the series line are getting a better deal than they could on this deciding Game 3.
Padres-Mets Game 3 Betting Preview
San Diego won the opener of this wild-card series Friday night 7-1, but New York took Saturday night’s game 7-3. The Padres won Friday as +150 underdogs on the dime line, beating up on Max Scherzer, while the Mets won Saturday as -190 favorites with Jake deGrom.
Also, both games played over totals of six runs.
With Saturday’s win, New York is 4-1 over its last five games.
With Saturday’s loss, San Diego is 4-3 over its last seven games.
New York finished 12 games better than the Padres in the regular-season standings, but San Diego took the season series from the Mets four games to two.
Game 3 Pitching Match-Up
Bassitt hit 17/30 on quality starts this season and finished two for his last three. Last Sunday, he gave up four runs on three hits and three walks through just 2 2/3 innings of a 5-3 New York loss to Atlanta. But over his two starts previous to that, he allowed just two runs and nine hits through 14 innings.
The Mets played 20-10 with Bassitt this season, 10-2 over his last 12 starts.
Over two starts against San Diego this season, one good and one bad, Bassitt gave up nine runs and 12 hits through 10 1/3 innings, with two walks and 17 strikeouts. New York lost both of those games.
Musgrove hit 20/30 on quality starts this year and finished six outs away from four in a row. Monday, he held San Francisco scoreless on two hits through six frames of a 7-4 Padres win. And over his last four outings, he gave up just one run and 15 hits through 22 innings, with eight walks against 27 whiffs.
San Diego played 19-11 with Musgrove this year, and that’s a couple of games worse than it should have been, based on his performances.
Over his last three starts against the Mets, two last year and one earlier this season, Musgrove allowed ten runs and 17 hits, including four home runs, through 16 2/3 innings, with four walks and 21 K’s. The Padres lost all three of those games.
Splits With the Sticks
San Diego batted .239 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .317 team OBP and a .380 team slugging percentage.
New York slashed .265/.336/.420 against right-handed pitching. Numbers like those lead us to rank this line-up among the top three or so in Baseball in this split.
The Bullpens
The Mets bullpen posted a 3.55 ERA this season, along with a 1.22 WHIP and a 3.30 K/BB ratio.
The Padres pen put up a 3.83 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 2.94 K/BB ratio.
- Get more details: San Diego at NY Mets Game 3 Betting Stats
MLB Betting Trends
- San Diego played 45-36 on the road this season and 58-50 against right-handed starters.
- New York played 54-27 at home and 69-38 against right-handed starters.
Totals Report
- The Unders played 82-75 in Padres games this season.
- The Overs played 85-69 in Mets games.
- The Overs played 42-35 at Citi Field this season.
- The Overs played a combined 35-24 with Bassitt and Musgrove this season, but that had more to do with low totals than what they did.
- The Overs are 5-3 in Padres-Mets games this season.
