The Boston Red Sox travel to Kauffman Stadium to face a red-hot Kansas City Royals team that’s dominating at home (16-5). We break down the Garrett Crochet vs. Cole Ragans lefty showdown, analyze the odds, and highlight why KC’s home dominance is the key factor in our free MLB pick for May 10th.
Sharp Money Take
The market has been slowly creeping toward Boston with the opener of KC -105 now flipped to Boston -111. However, this slight movement doesn’t scream sharp action, and we’re seeing reverse line movement with 60% of tickets on KC but the line moving toward Boston. The total has stayed firm at 7 with juice on the over, indicating professional confidence in the pitching matchup holding strong.
Key Matchup Analysis
Garrett Crochet (L, 3-2, 2.37 ERA) faces Cole Ragans (L, 2-1, 3.79 ERA) in a battle of southpaws. Crochet has been the more consistent arm, averaging 6 innings per start with 7.8 K’s over his last five outings. His strikeout stuff remains elite with 39 Ks in 30.1 innings this season.
Ragans was cooking in his last start against Chicago, tossing 5 scoreless frames. His home splits are significantly better, posting a 2.52 ERA at Kauffman compared to a 5.11 mark on the road. The Red Sox have struggled against lefties lately, batting just .220 against southpaws in their last 10 games.
Situational Factors
Kansas City is absolutely on fire right now, winning 9 of their last 10 games and riding a 5-game home winning streak. They’re 16-5 at Kauffman Stadium this season – the second-best home record in baseball. The Royals just took down Boston 2-1 in the series opener yesterday, continuing their pattern of low-scoring affairs.
Meanwhile, Boston has dropped 4 of their last 6 and are playing mediocre baseball at .500. They’ve struggled to maintain consistency, alternating good stretches with poor ones. The Red Sox bullpen has been taxed recently, pitching 14 innings over their last three games compared to KC’s 9 innings.
Statistical Edges
The Royals’ pitching has been lights out, especially at home where they’ve allowed just 2.80 runs per game (4th best home defense in MLB). Their team ERA of 2.81 dramatically outpaces Boston’s 3.79. Kansas City’s bullpen has been particularly dominant with a 2.76 ERA compared to Boston’s 3.70.
The scoring trends strongly favor the under here – KC games have gone under in 26 of 40 contests this season, including 13 of their last 16 home games. The Red Sox have seen the under hit in 6 of their last 8 overall. When these starters take the mound, runs have been scarce – Crochet’s last five starts have averaged just 6.6 total runs, while Ragans’ home starts this season have averaged 5.8 total runs.
The head-to-head history shows these teams played yesterday with a 3-run total, and six of the Royals’ last seven games have stayed under the total. The Red Sox have averaged just 3.4 runs over their last five games, well below their season average.
