The Cardinals continue their series at PNC Park tonight, sporting a rough 0-4 road start this season after yesterday’s 8-4 loss to these same Pirates. With elite young arm Paul Skenes taking the ball for Pittsburgh, sharp money is focusing on the first five innings where his dominance has been most evident.
Sharp Money Take
While the full game line sits at Pirates -135, the real value is hiding in the F5 market. The wiseguys have been quietly hammering the Pirates -0.5 for the first five innings, currently sitting at a very reasonable -105. When you’ve got a pitcher of Skenes’s caliber on the mound, isolating his impact makes perfect sense – and at this price, we’re getting tremendous value.
The F5 total has also seen some movement, dropping from 3.5 to 3, with juice now favoring the under. Classic sharp action telling us runs will be at a premium during Skenes’s time on the mound.
Key Matchup Analysis
Skenes has been absolutely cooking in the early innings. Looking at his last 5 starts (which include three from last season), he’s posted a microscopic 0.60 ERA through the first 5 innings, allowing just 3 earned runs total in that span. While his season opener saw him allow 2 runs against Tampa Bay, he ultimately settled in for the win. His command has been impeccable early in games with a 6.4 K/9 rate and just 0.6 BB/9.
Against the Cardinals specifically, Skenes has been dominant. In three career starts versus St. Louis, he’s posted a stellar 1.00 ERA and 0.91 WHIP across 18.1 innings. The Cardinals’ lineup simply hasn’t figured him out, hitting a collective .214 with just a .304 slugging percentage against the young phenom.
The only Cardinal showing any signs of life against Skenes is Nolan Arenado, who’s 4-for-9 in their matchups. Beyond Arenado, it’s been a struggle – Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, and Pedro Pages are a combined 0-for-12 with 6 strikeouts against him.
Situational Factors
The Cardinals’ road woes cannot be overstated – they’re 0-4 away from Busch Stadium this season and averaging just 3.8 runs per game in those contests. More importantly for our F5 play, they’ve been particularly slow starters, typically doing most of their damage in the later innings.
Weather conditions at PNC Park tonight call for temperatures in the mid-50s with minimal wind – pitcher-friendly conditions that should help Skenes establish dominance early.
The Cardinals’ struggles against elite pitching have been evident all season, and they’ve scored two runs or fewer through five innings in 6 of their 10 games played this year (60%).
Statistical Edges
- Pirates are 1-1 in F5 innings in Skenes’s two starts this season (but were 4-1 in F5 innings in his last 5 starts dating back to last season)
- Skenes has a 0.60 ERA in first 5 innings over his last 5 starts
- St. Louis is 0-4 straight up on the road this year
- In Skenes’ 3 career starts vs. STL, the Pirates have led after 5 innings in all 3
- The Cardinals’ tendency to be over-friendly (8-1 to the over overall) is largely irrelevant to our F5 play, as those overs have typically hit in the later innings when bullpens enter the equation.
