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Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants Pick

By Darin Zank
Date: 09/08/2019 10:15 pm
Location: Oracle Park
TV: NBCS Bay Area

Betting Odds



Moneyline: Phillies -115/Giants +105
Total: 8.5

After taking the opener of this four-game series Thursday night the Giants shoot for more when the teams meet again Friday night. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s MLB betting odds opened San Francisco at around -110 over Philadelphia, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then flipped the Phillies into -115 favorites and dipped that total to 8.5.

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Phillies vs. Giants Set-Up

San Francisco grabbed the opener of this series Thursday night 5-0, winning as a -100 “favorite” on the MLB betting line. The Giants scored three runs in the bottom of the third inning Thursday, and Madison Bumgarner and two relievers made that stand, holding Philadelphia to one hit on the night.

Also, Thursday’s game played under a total of seven runs.

Thursday’s victory snapped a four-game losing streak for San Francisco. At 57-59 overall the Giants trail the division-leading Dodgers by 19.5 games in the NL West, but they’re only three games behind Milwaukee in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

With Thursday’s loss, Philadelphia now owns a three-game losing skid, part of a current 2-5 slide. At 59-56 overall the Phillies now trail division-leading Atlanta by eight games in the NL East, but they’re only a half-game back of the Brewers in that NL wild-card race.

This series is the second meeting between these teams this season; just last weekend the Phillies took two of three games from the Giants back at Citizens Bank Park.

Friday’s Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played ten days ago back in Philly, a 4-2 Phillies win.

Rookie righty Beede, by our stringent standards, is 5/13 on quality starts this season but 0 for his last three. Last Sunday he got knocked around for five runs and eight hits, including a couple of homers, through just 3 2/3 innings of a 6-2 San Francisco loss to Colorado. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed 13 runs and 28 hits, including six dingers, through 14 1/3 innings.

On the season San Fran is 8-5 with Beede, but 0-3 over his last three starts.

In his only career start against Philadelphia, ten days ago, Beede gave up four runs and ten hits through five frames and took the L.

Lefty Smyly is just 2/12 on quality starts this season but 2/3 since joining the Phillies, after a lousy stint earlier this year with Texas. Last Sunday the White Sox got to him for five runs in five innings of a 10-5 Philly loss. But in his first two starts for his new team, he held Pittsburgh and these Giants to one run through 13 innings.

The Rangers only went 3-6 when Smyly started this season, but the Phillies are 2-1 with him.

Smyly’s only career start against San Francisco came in that game ten days ago, when he tossed seven innings of four-hit, shutout ball and picked up the W.

Friday’s Batting Splits

Philadelphia is batting .244/.323/.413 against right-handed pitching this season.

San Francisco is batting .233/.298/.373 against left-handed pitching this season, which “helps” this unit rank among the bottom three lineups in Baseball in this split.

The Bullpens

The Phillies bullpen owns a 4.76 ERA this season and a 1.46 WHIP while allowing an .809 OPS. Numbers like those are why we rank this unit among the worst half-dozen bullpens in Baseball.

The Giants pen owns a 3.66 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .679 OPS. Numbers like those are why we rank this unit among the top three bullpens in Baseball.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 59-53 in Phillies games this season.
  • Overs are 55-54 in Giants games this season.
  • Unders are 27-25 in games played at Oracle Park this season.
  • Unders are 3-1 in Phillies-Giants games this season.

Phillies at Giants Prediction 08/10/2019

Philly might own an edge in this pitching match-up, but for the moment we still don’t trust Smyly. And while the Phillies might also hold an advantage with the sticks, it’s not by much. Ultimately there’s a very good chance this game comes down to the bullpens, and that’s where San Francisco owns a significant advantage. So we’re going with the Giants here.

Free Pick: Take the Giants +105
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