Two teams who are trying to stay close in the National League wild-card race meet when the Phillies and Pirates open a three-game Keystone State rivalry series Friday night in Pittsburgh. Which way are we going here with our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Friday’s MLB betting odds opened the Pirates at around -110 over Philly, with an over/under of 10 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.
Phillies vs. Pirates Set-Up
Philadelphia just split four games at home with the Dodgers, scoring four runs in the bottom of the seventh inning to steal Thursday’s series finale 7-6. Just before that, the Phillies dropped two of three games to Washington. Going back a bit further Philly is only 5-7 over its last 12 games.
At 50-47 overall the Phillies trail first-place Atlanta by 7.5 games in the NL East, but they’re only a half-game back of Milwaukee in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at St. Louis, losing Wednesday’s series finale 6-5. The Pirates then had Thursday off.
Just before that Pittsburgh got swept three games by the Cubs, so the Pirates are 1-5 over their last six games.
At 45-50 overall Pittsburgh trails those first-place Cubs by 6.5 games in the NL Central, and it’s 4.5 games behind the Brewers in that NL wild-card race.
This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year the Phillies took the season series from the Pirates six games to one.
Friday’s Starting Arms
Lyles, by our stringent standards, is just 5/15 on quality starts this season and 0/3 since returning from a trip to the DL. Last Saturday he got bombed by the Cubs for seven runs in less than one inning of work in a 10-4 Pittsburgh loss. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed 14 runs on 19 hits, including five dingers, through just 10 2/3 innings.
The Pirates are 8-7 with Lyles this season, but 0-6 over his last six starts.
This outing will be Lyles’ first start against Philadelphia since 2015 when he was with Colorado, and that’s a long time ago.
Arrieta is 8/19 on quality starts this year but 0 for his last four. Last Sunday he held Washington to one run through five innings of a 4-3 Phillies victory, but over his three starts previous to that he allowed 15 runs – 14 earned – and 28 hits through 16 1/3 innings.
Philadelphia is 11-8 with Arrieta this year, and 3-1 over his last four starts, although he can’t take too much credit for that.
In two starts against Pittsburgh last year Arrieta allowed just two runs and seven hits through 14 innings, with 18 strikeouts. The Phillies won both those games.
Friday’s Batting Splits
Philadelphia is batting .240/.321/.415 against right-handed pitching this season.
Pittsburgh is batting .275/.337/.445 against RH pitching this season. But this lineup has also scored a total of just 18 runs over its last six games.
The Bullpens
The Phillies bullpen owns a 5.03 ERA this season and a 1.48 WHIP while allowing an .819 OPS.
The Pirates pen owns a 4.88 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP while allowing a .787 OPS.
Both these unit ranks among the bottom half-dozen bullpens in baseball.
Totals Report
- Unders are 48-46 in Phillies games this season.
- Overs are a lopsided 56-36 in Pirates games this season.
- Overs are 29-12 in games played at PNC Park this season, which are averaging a somewhat shocking 11 runs per. But we’re chalking most of that up to Pittsburgh pitching, such as it is, rather than the ballpark.
- Unders played 4-1-2 in Phillies-Pirates games this season.
- Get more details: Phillies at Pirates MLB Match-up Stats
