The Phillies are tied for the lead in the NL wild-card race, while the Diamondbacks are in danger of fading away, heading into the middle game of a three-game series in Phoenix Tuesday night. Philadelphia took Monday night’s meeting, and it’s getting an underdog price for this game. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Tuesday’s MLB betting odds opened Arizona at around -120 over Philly, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that line up to -130.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Set-Up
Philadelphia grabbed the opener of this series Monday night 7-3, winning as a +100 underdog on the MLB betting line. Monday’s game also sneaked over a total of 9.5 runs when the Phillies scored the last run of the game on a walk, stolen base, error and wild pitch in the top of the ninth inning.
With Monday’s win, Philadelphia is 5-3 over its last eight games. At 59-53 overall the Phillies trail division-leading Atlanta by six games in the NL East, but they’re also tied with Washington for the lead in the National League wild-card race.
With Monday’s loss, Arizona is 3-5 over its last eight games. At 56-57 overall the Diamondbacks trail the division-leading Dodgers by 18 games in the NL West, but they’re only 3.5 games behind the Nationals and Philly in that NL wild-card race.
This series is the second meeting between these teams this season; back in June the D’Backs took two of three games back in Philly.
Tuesday’s Starting Arms
Leake is making his first start for his new team Tuesday night, following his trade from Seattle. On the season, by our strict standards, he’s 12/22 on quality starts and two for his last three. Last Tuesday Leake gave up five runs – three earned – and ten hits through 5 2/3 innings at Texas, although the Mariners eventually won that game 8-5. And over his two previous starts, he allowed just three runs and ten hits through 16 innings.
Seattle went 11-11 with Leake this season, 3-0 over his last three starts.
This start will be Leake’s first against Philadelphia since 2017, and that’s already kind of a long time ago.
Arrieta is 8/22 on quality starts this year but 0 for his last seven, although that latter figure is due in part to a short leash. Last Thursday he gave up two runs – one earned – and four hits through four innings of a 10-2 Phillies victory over San Francisco. And over his last four starts, he’s allowed seven ER and 19 hits through 19 2/3 innings.
Philadelphia is 13-9 with Arrieta this season, 3-1 over his last four outings.
Over his last two starts against Arizona, one last year and one earlier this season, Arrieta allowed three runs and nine hits through 14 innings. The Phillies split those two games.
Tuesday’s Batting Splits
Philadelphia is batting .244/.323/.414 against right-handed pitching this season.
Arizona is batting .249/.322/.425 against RH pitching this season.
The Bullpens
The Phillies bullpen owns a 4.69 ERA this season and a 1.44 WHIP while allowing an .800 OPS. Numbers like those help this unit rank among the worst half-dozen bullpens in Baseball.
The Diamondbacks pen owns a 4.54 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP while allowing a .746 OPS.
Totals Report
- Unders are 57-52 in Phillies games this season.
- Overs are 56-51 in Diamondbacks games this season.
- Unders are 25-23 in games played at Chase Field this season.
- Overs are 3-1 in Phillies-Diamondbacks this season.
- Overs are a combined 24-19 with Leake and Arrieta this season.
- Get more details: Phillies at Diamondbacks MLB Match-up Stats
