The biggest surprise in Baseball so far this season, the San Francisco Giants, welcome the Phillies to the Bay Area for a three-game weekend series beginning Friday night. Johnny Cueto gets the call for the home team here against Vince Velasquez for the visitors. Here’s our homework for this game with our free MLB betting pick.
MLB Betting Odds
Friday’s baseball betting lines opened San Francisco at around -130 for Friday night with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.
Phillies-Giants MLB Betting Preview
Philadelphia just lost two of three games to the Dodgers in Los Angeles, avoiding the sweep with a 2-0 win Wednesday. The Phillies then had Thursday off.
Last weekend Philly swept two games from the Yankees, and just before that, they took two of three from Atlanta. Going back a bit further, the Phillies are 3-1 over their last four series and 7-3 over their last ten games.
At 33-33, overall, Philadelphia trails Milwaukee and San Diego by 3.5 games in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot. The Phillies are also playing a smidgen ahead of schedule against their season wins over/under of 80.5.
San Francisco, meanwhile, just swept four games at home from a bad Arizona team, winning Thursday’s series finale 10-3. Just before that, the Giants split four games at Washington, and just before that, they split two games at Texas.
Going back a bit further, San Francisco is 4-0-3 over its last seven series and 14-6 over its previous 20 games.
At 44-25 overall, the Giants lead the White Sox by one game in the battle for the best record in baseball, and they’re 2.5 games up on the Dodgers in the race for the best record in the National League. San Francisco is also playing way ahead of schedule against its wins O/U of 75.5.
This series is the second meeting between these teams this season; back in April, the Giants took two of three games at Philly.
On the injury front, both these teams are missing at least a couple of lineup regulars. Also, while Phillies OF Bryce Harper is listed as questionable for Friday night, our guess is he’ll play.
Friday’s Pitching Match-Up
Cueto is 2/10 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last two. Last Sunday, he gave up five runs – four earned – on nine hits and three walks through 5 1/3 innings of a 5-0 San Francisco loss to Washington. And just before that, he gave up four runs – three earned – in just 4 1/3 innings of a 4-3 Giants loss to the Cubs.
On the season, San Francisco is 6-4 with Cueto, but that’s at least one game better than it should be.
This will be Cueto’s first start against Philadelphia since 2017, and that’s already a long time ago.
Velasquez is 2/9 on quality starts this year and 0 for his last three. Last Saturday, he limited the Yankees to two runs on six hits through five frames of a game the Phillies eventually won 8-7. But over his last three starts, he’s given up 11 runs and 15 hits, including three home runs, through just 12 innings.
On the season, Philadelphia is 6-3 with Velasquez, but that’s also at least one game better than it should be.
This will be Velazquez’ first start against the Giants since 2019, when over two games, he allowed five runs through 10 innings. The Phillies lost both those games.
Splits With the Sticks
Philadelphia is batting .234 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .308 team OBP and a .373 team slugging percentage. The Phillies also scored a total of just six runs over their three-game series against the Dodgers.
San Francisco is slashing .238/.321/.429 against right-handed pitching this season. The Giants also just scored 37 runs in their four-game sweep of Arizona.
- Get more details: PHI/SF 6/18/21 Matchup Stats
The Bullpens
The Philly bullpen owns a 4.42 ERA this season, along with a 1.35 WHIP and a 2.31 K/BB ratio.
The San Francisco pen owns a 3.37 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, which ranks No. 3 in the Majors, and a 2.86 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those lead us to rank this unit among the top half-dozen bullpens in Baseball right now.
MLB Betting Trends
- The Phillies are 12-21 on the road this season.
- The Giants are 22-9 at home this season.
- The Phillies are 24-19 against right-handed starters this season.
- The Giants are 32-17 against right-handed starters this season.
Totals Report
Unders are 34-32 in Phillies games this season.
Unders are 34-33 in Giants games this season.
Overs are 18-15 in games played at Oracle Park this season.
Unders are a combined 10-8 with Cueto and Velasquez this season.
