A pair of National League playoff hopefuls who ain’t been playing too great as of late meet when the Phillies and Padres play the middle game of a three-game set in San Diego Saturday night. Philadelphia just snapped a four-game losing streak Friday night while the Padres now own a four-game losing skid of their own. And that’s no way to make the playoffs. Joe Musgrove gets the call for the home team here against Aaron Nola for the visitors. Who do we like here for our free MLB predictions?
MLB Betting Odds
Saturday’s MLB oddsboard opened San Diego at around -190 over Philly, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then dropped that line 30 cents to -160.
Phillies-Padres MLB Betting Preview
Philadelphia grabbed the opener of this series Friday night 4-3. The Phillies opened the scoring with three runs in the top of the third inning and hung on from there, as four Philly pitchers scattered four hits and ten walks.
Philadelphia won Friday as a +190 underdog against Padres starter Blake Snell and the game played under a total of nine runs.
Friday’s win snapped a four-game losing skid for Philadelphia. At 62-60 overall, the Phillies are four games behind first-place Atlanta in the NL East and five games behind San Diego in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.
With Friday’s loss, San Diego now owns a four-game losing streak of its own and is just 1-8 over its last nine games. At 67-57 overall, the Padres now trail division-leading San Francisco, by 12 games in the NL West, and they’re now tied with the Reds for the No. 2 spot in the NL wild-card standings.
Philadelphia leads the season series with San Diego three games to one.
Saturday’s Pitching Match-Up
Musgrove is 11/23 on quality starts this season and four for his last five. Last Saturday, he got knocked around for six runs and ten hits through five innings of a 7-0 San Diego loss to Arizona. But over his four starts previous to that, he allowed just four runs and 16 hits through 25 innings, with six walks against 28 strikeouts.
The Padres are 12-11 with Musgrove this season, 4-2 over his last six starts.
Over two career starts against Philadelphia, both while with Pittsburgh back in 2019, Musgrove allowed two earned runs and seven hits through 12 innings. His Pirates split those two games.
By our strict standards, Nola is 7/24 on quality starts this year and 0 for his last three. Last Sunday, he allowed four runs on six hits and three walks through 4 1/3 innings of a 7-4 Phillies loss to Cincinnati. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed nine runs on 12 hits and six walks through 13 1/3 innings.
The Phillies are 11-13 with Nola this year, 1-3 his last four times out.
In his most recent start against San Diego, back in 2019, Nola gave up six runs in less than six innings of an 8-2 Philly defeat.
Splits With the Sticks
Philadelphia is batting .233 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .311 team OBP and a .393 team slugging percentage.
San Diego is slashing .247/.327/.418 against right-handed pitching.
- Get more details: Philadelphia at San Diego 8/21/21 Game Matchup Stats
The Bullpens
The Phillies bullpen owns a 4.53 ERA this season, along with a 1.41 WHIP and a 2.33 K/BB ratio.
The Padres pen owns a 3.03 ERA, which ranks No. 1 in Baseball, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 2.94 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
- The Phillies are 26-35 on the road this season.
- The Padres are 40-25 at home.
- The Phillies are 44-39 against right-handed starters this season.
- The Padres are 45-44 against right-handed starters.
Totals Report
Unders are 60-59 in Phillies games this season.
Overs are 65-58 in Padres games.
Overs are a combined 25-22 with Musgrove and Nola this season.
Unders are 3-1 in Phillies-Padres games this season.
Overs are 34-31 in games played at Petco Park this season.
