The Phillies and Braves are 13-13 over their last 26 meetings, including last year’s playoffs, heading into the finale of this four-game series Sunday evening in suburban Atlanta. Spencer Strider goes for the Braves here against newly acquired Dylan Covey for Philadelphia.
How are we playing this game with our free Phi/Atl 5/28/23 pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Sunday’s baseball betting market opened Atlanta and Strider at around -240 over Philly and Covey, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Braves even higher, up to -265 before settling back at -240.
Phillies-Braves Betting Preview
Atlanta took the opener of this series Thursday 8-5, but Philadelphia won Friday’s game 6-4, then won Saturday 2-1. Thursday’s game was lined as a pick ’em, with Aaron Nola pitching for the Phillies, but Philly won Friday as a +135 underdog, then getting +110 Saturday.
With Saturday’s victory, the Phillies are 5-3 over their last eight games. At 25-27 overall, Philadelphia sits in ninth place in the National League playoff standings.
With Saturday’s loss, the Braves are only 3-5 over their last eight games. At 31-21 overall, Atlanta now trails the Dodgers by a half-game in the battle for the best record in the NL.
This series is the first meeting between these divisional rivals this season. Last year the Braves took the season series from the Phillies 11 games to eight, but Philly then beat Atlanta in four games in the divisional round of the NL playoffs.
Sunday’s Pitching Match-Up
Strider is 5/10 on quality starts this season and two for his last three. Tuesday against the Dodgers, he gave up four runs – two earned – and five hits through six innings, with three walks against 11 strikeouts, in an 8-1 Atlanta loss. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed eight ER and 16 hits through 16 2/3 innings, with seven walks and 30 whiffs.
The Braves are 8-2 with Strider this season, although that’s at least one game better than they should be, based on his performances.
Also, for whatever reason, five of Atlanta’s eight wins with Strider have come by exactly one run.
Over four starts against Philadelphia last year, including one in the playoffs, Strider allowed eight runs and just ten hits through 21 innings, with seven walks against 33 K’s. The Braves won three of those four games.
Covey is making his first start and second appearance for his new team after getting picked up from the Dodgers last week. Last Tuesday, he held Arizona to one run and five hits through five innings of relief, with one walk and six strikeouts, keeping the Phillies in a game they eventually lost 4-3.
Covey began this season in Triple-A, then made a mediocre appearance for Los Angeles a couple of weeks ago before getting released.
This will be Covey’s first career appearance against Atlanta.
Splits With the Sticks
Philadelphia is batting .268 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .340 team OBP and a .416 team slugging percentage.
Atlanta is slashing .233/.313/.413 against right-handed pitching.
The Bullpens
The Braves bullpen owns a 4.01 ERA this season, along with a 1.25 WHIP and a 3.34 K/BB ratio.
The Phillies pen owns a 4.08 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 2.43 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
Philadelphia is 11-17 on the road this season but 19-16 against right-handed starters.
Atlanta is 14-14 at home and 21-17 against right-handed starters.
Totals Report
- The unders are 26-22 in Phillies games this season.
- The overs are 30-21 in Braves games.
- The overs are 18-9 at Truist Park this season.
