San Diego Padres (23-11, Won 6 straight) vs. New York Yankees (19-16, Lost 3 straight)
When: Tuesday, May 6, 2025, 7:05 PM (ET)
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
TV: YES Network
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Padres -1.5 (+157) / Yankees +1.5 (-189)
Total: 8.5
Money Line: Padres +100 / Yankees -111
The red-hot Padres are cooking right now, riding a six-game winning streak into the Bronx, while the Yankees are stumbling through a three-game skid. This is setting up as a classic fade-the-public spot with money flowing in on San Diego against a Yankees squad that can’t seem to put it together lately.
Sharp Money Take
The market opened with the Yankees as slight -111 favorites, but we’re not seeing any significant line movement that would indicate sharp action. The current number still sits right around that opening range, telling us this is a pretty evenly matched game in the eyes of the bookmakers. What is telling, though, is that San Diego has won six straight while covering the runline in five of those contests – they’re flat-out dominating teams right now.
Key Matchup Analysis
Michael King (4-1, 2.09 ERA) takes the hill for San Diego against Clarke Schmidt (0-1, 5.52 ERA) in a pitching matchup that heavily favors the visitors. King has been dealing lately, allowing just 1.4 runs per game over his last five starts while averaging 6.0 innings per outing. His ground ball to fly ball ratio (1.7) shows he’s keeping the ball down – crucial in Yankee Stadium.
Schmidt, meanwhile, has struggled with consistency this season. Though he managed a decent outing against Toronto (5 IP, 1 ER), his 5.52 ERA tells the story of a pitcher still trying to find his groove. The Yankees have actually won two of his three starts, but he’s averaging just 4.9 innings per start, which puts pressure on a bullpen that’s been taxed lately.
Situational Factors
The Padres bullpen has been absolutely lights out this season, posting a microscopic 1.55 ERA (1st MLB) compared to the Yankees’ 3.27 (12th MLB). When we’re getting plus money on a team with elite relief pitching, that’s a serious edge for both the full game and potential live betting spots if King can keep it close through 5-6 innings.
This is also the second game of the series after San Diego took the opener 4-3. Historically, the Padres are 3-9 in their last 12 games in the Bronx, but this is a different Padres team that’s playing with supreme confidence. The Yankees are just 4-6 in their last 10 overall and have dropped a hefty $382 in ML profits during that stretch.
Statistical Edges
The numbers heavily favor San Diego in several key areas:
- Bullpen ERA: Padres 1.55 (1st) vs. Yankees 3.27 (12th)
- Current Form: Padres 6-0 SU last 6 vs. Yankees 1-4 SU last 5
- Runline Performance: Padres 5-0 vs. runline last 5 vs. Yankees 1-4 vs. runline last 5
- Starting Pitcher ERA: King 2.09 vs. Schmidt 5.52
- Under Trend: 8-3 to the UNDER in last 11 head-to-head matchups
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Diego’s last 11 games and 4 of New York’s last 5 home games. With King’s stellar form and the Padres’ elite bullpen, the UNDER looks attractive even with the total set at a reasonable 8.5.
