Merrill Kelly Starting Pitcher Arizona Diamondbacks

Orioles vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Kelly vs. Morton (April 8)

By Geekbrandmedia
Date: 08/04/2025 9:40 pm
Location: Chase Field
TV: MLB

Betting Odds



Moneyline: Az -125/Balt +105
Total: 9

After taking the first game of this inter-league series Monday night the Orioles go looking for more when the teams meet again Tuesday night in Phoenix.
Merrill Kelly hits the hill for the home team here against longtime National Leaguer Charlie Morton for the visitors.  
How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Tuesday’s baseball betting market opened Arizona and Kelly at -115 over Baltimore and Morton, with an O/U of 9. Early betting action bumped the Diamondbacks to -125. 

Orioles-Diamondbacks Betting Preview

Baltimore took the opener of this series Monday night 5-1. The Orioles took the lead for good on an O’Hearn home run in the top of the first inning, got six quality innings from starter Zach Eflin and three scoreless innings from the bullpen, on their way toward victory.
Baltimore won Monday as a +110 underdog against Arizona’s Zac Gallen and the game played under a total of 8.5.
The Orioles opened this season by splitting four games with Toronto, then losing two of three games to both Boston and Kansas City. So a victory Tuesday night would give Baltimore its first series win.
Meanwhile the Diamondbacks opened this season by splitting four games with the Cubs, then taking two of three from the Yankees, then losing two of three to Washington. So Arizona totes a three-game losing skid into Tuesday night.
These teams met once last year, in May when the O’s took two of three games from the D’Backs at Camden Yards. Neither of Tuesday’s starting pitchers appeared in that series.

Tuesday’s Pitching Match-Up

Kelly is 0/2 on quality starts this season. First, he held the Cubs to one run and three hits through 5 1/3 innings of an 8-1 Arizona victory. But then last Thursday, he got bombed for nine runs and three home runs in less than four innings of a 9-7 Diamondbacks loss at the Yankees.
So the D’Backs are 1-1 with Kelly, the Overs 1-0-1.
This will be Kelly’s first start against Baltimore since 2019, which is a long time ago.
Morton is also 0/2 on quality starts this year. First, he gave up four runs and seven hits in less than four innings of an 8-2 Orioles loss to Toronto. Then, last Thursday, he allowed five runs and two home runs in five innings of an 8-4 Baltimore loss to Boston.
So the Orioles are 0-2 with Morton, and the Overs are 2-0.
Morton missed Arizona last year but in two starts against the D’Backs for Atlanta in 2023 he got touched for seven runs and 12 hits through 12 2/3 innings. The Braves lost both of those games.

Splits With the Sticks

Baltimore is batting .260 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .316 team OBP and a .444 team slugging percentage. This line-up is operating without OF Colton Cowser but recently welcomed back OF Gunnar Henderson, who had two hits Monday night
Last year we ranked Arizona as one of the top four line-ups in the MLB against RH pitching. This year the Diamondbacks are slashing .269/.341/.483 against RHP. But this line-up lost a good stick over the off-season in Christian Walker and now it’s operating without 2B Ketel Marte (hamstring).

The Bullpens

Last year, we ranked the Arizona bullpen among the bottom half-dozen in Baseball. This year, the D’Backs pen has allowed 15 runs and 28 hits through 40 innings, with eight walks and 47 strikeouts.
The Orioles pen has allowed 14 ER and 29 hits through 39 innings, with 19 walks against 41 whiffs.

Totals Report

The Overs are 7-4 in Orioles games this season.
The Overs are 6-4 in Diamondbacks games.

Prop Board

Baltimore SS Henderson, who tallied three total bases Monday night, is lined at -105 to go over 1.5 TB.
Arizona OF Carroll is catching +130 to go over 1.5 TB.

Orioles vs. D'Backs Free Pick

We give Arizona the check-mark in the pitching match-up, in expectation of a bounce-back performance from Kelly. We also give the Diamondbacks an edge with the sticks while calling the bullpens a wash. So we like Arizona for Tuesday night, the home team at a reasonable price.

Free Pick: Take Arizona -125
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