NY Mets at LA Dodgers Prediction & Expert Analysis

By Darin Zank
Date: 18/04/2023 10:10 pm
Location: Dodger Stadium
TV: TBS

Betting Odds



Moneyline: Mets +143/Dodgers -155
Runline: NYM +1.5 -148/LAD -1.5 +128
Total: 8ov -123

After taking the first game of this three-game series at Chavez Ravine Monday night, the Mets go looking for more when the teams meet again Tuesday night.
Tylor Megill, already 3-0 on the season, hits the hill for New York here against venerable lefty Clay Kershaw for the Blue Crew.

How are we playing this game with our free NYM/LAD pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Tuesday’s baseball betting lines opened Los Angeles and Kershaw at around -165 over New York and Megill, with an over/under of eight runs. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Mets-Dodgers MLB Betting Preview

New York grabbed the opener of this series Monday night 8-6. The Mets trailed that game 6-5 through six innings, then pushed across three runs in the top of the seventh and hung on from there.

New York won Monday as a +120 underdog on the dime line, and the game played over a total of 8.5 runs in the fifth inning,

Over the weekend, the Mets swept three games at Oakland, and just before that, they took the final game of a series with San Diego. So New York rides a five-game winning streak into Monday night.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, is 3-7 over its last ten games.

Last year the Mets took the season series from the Dodgers four games to three.

Tuesday’s Pitching Match-Up

Kershaw is 2/3 on quality starts this season. Last Wednesday, he allowed three runs – two earned – on five hits through six innings of a 10-5 Los Angeles victory over San Francisco. And over his three starts this year, he’s allowed seven ER and 16 hits through 18 innings, with four walks against 17 strikeouts.

The Dodgers are 2-1 with Kershaw this season.

In his only start against the Mets last season, Kershaw allowed just one run and one hit through five innings, although LA lost that game 5-3.

Megill is 1/3 on quality starts this year, twice getting pulled after five good innings. Last Wednesday, he held San Diego to two runs and three hits through five frames of a 5-2 New York victory. And over his three starts, he’s allowed just four runs and 12 hits through 16 innings, with seven walks against 13 whiffs.

The Mets are 3-0 with Megill this season.

In his only career start against the Dodgers, two seasons ago, Megill allowed three runs through five frames of a 6-5 New York loss.

Splits With the Sticks

New York is batting .245 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .342 team OBP and a .420 team slugging percentage. The Mets have also scored at least five runs six times over their last ten games.

Los Angeles is slashing .244/.337/.469 against right-handed pitching this season. The Dodgers have also been held to three runs or less four times over their last six games.

The Bullpens

The Los Angeles bullpen owns a 4.97 ERA this season, along with a 1.53 WHIP and a 3.06 K/BB ratio.

The New York pen owns a 3.32 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 2.75 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

The Mets played 32-23 against left-handed starters last year, and they’re 4-4 this year.

The Dodgers played 79-35 against right-handed starters last year, and they’re 7-4 this year. .

The Mets are 2-1 this season as underdogs.

The Dodgers are only 6-7 this season when favored by -150 or more.

Totals Report

  • The Unders are 8-7 in Mets games this season.
  • The Overs are 8-7 in Dodgers games.
  • The Unders played 37-36 at Dodger Stadium last season.

Mets at Dodgers Moneyline Prediction 4/18/23

We’ll give Kershaw the edge in the pitching match-up here, but it’s close. From there, we’ll give New York the edge in the bullpen comparison while the splits with the sticks look about even. So the value of the line on this game resides with the Mets. Also, New York is hot, with five straight wins, while Los Angeles is struggling a bit as of late. We like the Mets getting that underdog price Tuesday night.

 

Free Pick: Take the NY Mets +1 43
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