The National League Championship Series kicks off as the Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 1. Both teams defied expectations this season, with the Phillies entering as wild-card entries for the second consecutive year, while the Diamondbacks orchestrated a shocking three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS.
Let’s dive into the pitching duel and make our free NLCS Game 1 baseball betting pick.
NLCS Betting Odds
The initial odds for Game 1 favor the Phillies at around -160, with an over/under set at 7.5 runs. These numbers held steady in the early betting action.
Diamondbacks-Phillies Game 1 Betting Preview
The Diamondbacks took the baseball world by storm by stunning the heavily-favored Dodgers in the NLDS. The D-backs claimed the first two games of the series at Dodger Stadium and sealed the deal with a 4-2 victory in Game 3. It marks Arizona’s return to the NLCS for the first time since 2007.
Philadelphia secured its place in the NLCS by defeating the top-seeded Braves in four games during the NLDS. After splitting the first two games in Atlanta, the Phillies secured the series win with a 3-1 victory at home.
The Phillies, with 90 regular-season wins, played just over their over/under line set at 88.5. They entered the season with +900 odds to win the pennant. In contrast, the Diamondbacks exceeded expectations by winning 84 games, surpassing their over/under line of 75.5, and entering the season with +7000 odds to win the National League pennant.
In head-to-head regular-season matchups, the Phillies finished six games ahead of the Diamondbacks and won the season series 4-3.
NLCS Game 1 Pitching Match-Up
In his two postseason starts, Zach Wheeler has displayed a 2.25 ERA. He allowed just one run and five hits in 6 2/3 innings during the wild-card round against Miami. In the NLDS against Atlanta, Wheeler gave up two runs and three hits in 6 1/3 innings, along with one walk and 10 strikeouts. However, the Phillies lost that game 5-4.
The Phillies hold a 20-14 record with Wheeler on the mound this season, although a 22-12 record could more accurately represent his performance when examining individual games.
Zac Gallen, on the other hand, is also making his third postseason start. In the wild-card clincher against Milwaukee, he surrendered two runs and five hits across six innings during a 5-2 Diamondbacks win. Against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, Gallen once again allowed two runs and five hits across 5 1/3 innings, this time during a 4-2 Diamondbacks victory.
Arizona holds a 21-15 record with Gallen on the mound this season, with a 22-14 record potentially providing a more accurate reflection of his performance when examining individual games.
Gallen’s only start against the Phillies this season ended with him giving up two runs and five hits in 5 2/3 innings, although the Diamondbacks bullpen eventually allowed the game to slip away in a 6-5 loss.
Splits With the Sticks
The Diamondbacks batted .250 against right-handed pitching during the regular season, with a .323 team OBP and a .414 team slugging percentage. Conversely, the Phillies slashed .256/.327/.432 against right-handed pitching.
The Bullpens
Philadelphia’s bullpen boasted a 3.58 ERA this season, along with a 1.27 WHIP and a 2.72 K/BB ratio. In contrast, Arizona’s bullpen had a 4.22 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 2.47 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
During the regular season, Arizona compiled a 41-40 road record and is currently 4-0 away from home this postseason. The Diamondbacks posted a 56-57 record against right-handed starters.
Philadelphia had a 49-32 home record during the regular season and was 60-51 against right-handed starters.
Totals Report
The under prevailed in 84 of the Diamondbacks’ regular-season games, while the under hit in 76 of the Phillies’ games. At Citizens Bank Park, the under was the outcome in 37 of the 72 games played.
