We roll into Week 8 of the NFL football season riding a terrible 1-6 ATS streak giving away all our early season profits plus juice. I’ll look to turn it around with a couple of NFL picks for Week 8.
Week 2: 3-1, Week 3: 2-1, Week 4: 2-1, Week 5: 2-1, Week 6: 1-3, Week 7: 0-3
Note: No matter how good you are at handicapping the games you are going to go through some bad streaks and that’s why you need to use proper bankroll management (1% to 5% per wager) every time you bet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -4
Total: 54.5
This game opened as high as Bengals -6 on some NFL boards and has floated around -3.5 to -4 since midweek. This movement is against the public consensus that has been in the 60% plus range since the opener. The total continues to climb after originally being offered at 53 to a consensus line of 54.5 points.
The Bucs broke off a three game losing streak with their overtime win against the Browns last week and can build on that this week. QB Jameis Winston continues to rack up the yards with 719 in the last two games, but the turnovers have been costly tossing 4 interceptions to go with four fumbles (1 Lost) during that span. I look for some improvement today against the Bengals who have as a team have a season total of 6 INTs while giving up the most pass completions in the league. Note that slot CB Darqueze Dennard and decent cover LB Nick Vigil are once again out after missing last week’s 45-10 beat down at the hands of the Chiefs.
Cincinnati RB Joe Mixon didn’t have a great game against the Chiefs picking up 50 yards on 13 carries, but that was primarily situational with the Chiefs taking a 24-7 lead into the half. Mixon should have some space today with the Bucs shorthanded with five defensive starters out including MLB Kwon Alexander the defensive QB and second leading tackler on the team. The Bengals have struggled on offense since losing TE Tyler Eifert after week 4 and back up TE Tyler Kroft after Week 5 , but they may be able to get something out of the position against the TB 32nd ranked unit against the position. The Bucs held the Browns to 23 points, but they did allow 30 or greater in the three previous and have allowed 34 or more in all three road games this season.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Steelers -8.5
Total: 48
The Browns played the Steelers tough in Week 1 in a bad weather day at home at FirstEnergy Stadium resulting in a 21-21 tie. Pittsburgh dominated the stats in nearly every category excluding turnovers finishing at -5 on the day. Big Ben had five turnovers on the day with three INTs and two fumbles, but he has been more cautious with the ball since the opener tossing three over the next five games. The Steelers come into this game rested and should be fully motivated after the earlier result and their need to pick up divisional wins. Huge line for a divisional game, but I can see them winning this by double digits.
