The American League pennant comes down to a rematch of the AL championship series of two seasons ago, as the Astros and Yankees meet again, beginning with Game 1 Saturday night down in H-Town. Houston outlasted New York in seven games two years ago, on its way toward that World Series title. Can the Astros knock off the Evil Empire again? And how are we playing Game 1 with our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
MLB playoffs betting odds opened Houston at around -155 for Game 1 over New York, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that total to eight.
Houston could also be found getting upwards of +130, giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.
Yankees vs. Astros Game 1 Set-Up
New York won 105 games this season to claim the AL East title for the first time since 2012. But even 105 wins wasn’t enough to claim the top seed in the American League playoffs. The Yankees then advanced to this ALCS by sweeping Minnesota in three games in an AL divisional-round series, outscoring the Twins 23-7.
So New York is back in the ALCS for the second time in the last three seasons.
Houston, meanwhile, won 107 games to claim the AL West title for the third straight season. The Astros also own home-field advantage for as long as they’re alive in these playoffs, and they took advantage of that Wednesday when they beat Tampa Bay 6-1 in Game 5 of that ALDS.
Houston won the first two games of that series with the Rays at home, lost two games on the road, then rode Gerrit Cole at home for the series finale.
So the Astros are also back in the ALCS for the second time in the last three seasons.
Houston took the season series from the Yankees this year four games to three.
Game 1 Starting Arms
Greinke, by our strict standards, is 22/34 on quality starts this season. He finished the regular season well, allowing five runs and 17 hits over his last four starts, covering 25 1/3 innings. But he bombed in his only start in that ALDS against Tampa Bay, giving up six runs and three home runs through just 3 2/3 innings of a 10-3 Astros loss in Game 3.
Still, Houston is 8-3 with Greinke since acquiring him in a deal with Arizona back at the trade deadline.
In two starts this year against New York, both while he was still with the Diamondbacks, Greinke gave up just three runs and seven hits through 12 2/3 innings. Arizona split those two games.
Tanaka is 15/32 on quality starts this year. He finished the regular season by allowing three runs – two earned – and nine hits over his last two outings, covering ten innings. Then he held Minnesota to one run and three hits through five innings of an 8-2 Yankees victory in Game 2 of that ALDS.
On the season, New York is 20-12 with Tanaka, 3-1 over his last four starts.
In two starts this season against Houston Tanaka allowed just three runs and 11 hits through 12 innings. The Yanks split those two games.
Game 1 Batting Splits
New York batted .265/.336/.484 against right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those help this lineup rank among the top five in Baseball in this split this year.
Houston batted .274/.349/.492 against RH pitching this season. Those numbers are why we rank this lineup as the best in Baseball in this split.
The Bullpens
The Yankees bullpen posted a 4.08 ERA this season and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .729 OPS. New York relievers then allowed just three runs and nine hits through 13 1/3 innings of work in that ALDS victory over Minnesota.
The Astros pen put up a 3.75 ERA this year and a 1.20 WHIP while holding foes to a .694 OPS. Houston relievers then allowed six runs and 19 hits through 13 innings in that ALDS victory over Tampa Bay.
Totals Report
- Overs played 84-72 in Yankees games this season.
- Unders played 84-71 in Astros games this season.
- Unders finished 39-37 in games played at Minute Maid Park this season.
- Overs played 5-2 in Yankees-Astros games this season.
- Get more details: Yankees at Astros MLB Match-up Stats
