seattle-mariners-logan-gilbert-1_1

New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners Odds, Trends, Predictions

By Darin Zank
Date: 08/08/2022 10:10 pm
Location: T-Mobile Park
TV: MLBN

Betting Odds



Moneyline: NYY -108 / SEA -102
Total: 7.5ov -123

The AL East-leading Yankees, slumping a bit as of late, head West for a three-game series with the wild-card hopeful Mariners beginning Monday night. It’ll be a battle of right-handers to open this series as Jameson Taillon goes for New York here against Logan Gilbert for Seattle. Which way are we going here for our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s baseball betting lines opened New York at around -125 over Seattle, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped the Yankees to as low as -108.

Yankees-Mariners MLB Betting Preview

New York just got swept three games at St. Louis over the weekend, losing Sunday’s series finale 12-9. Just before that, the Yankees lost the last two games of a series with this Seattle team. So New York lugs a five-game losing skid into Monday night. Going back a bit further, New York is 6-11 over its last 17 games. At 70-39 overall, the Yankees still lead the AL East by 8.5 games over second-place Toronto, but their lead over Houston in the battle for the best record in the American League is down to a half-game. The Mariners, meanwhile, just split four games at home with the Angels over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series finale 6-3. Just before that, Seattle won the last two games of that series with these Yankees. Going back a bit further, the Mariners are 8-6 over their last 14 games. At 59-51 overall, Seattle trails the first-place Astros by 11 games in the AL West but also sits tied with Tampa Bay for the Nos. 2-3 spot in the AL wild-card race. This series is the second meeting between these teams this season; just last week, as mentioned above, the Mariners took two of three games at Yankee Stadium.

Monday’s Pitching Match-Up

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played last Tuesday in New York, an 8-6 Seattle victory. Gilbert is 9/22 on quality starts this season and two for his last three. Last Tuesday, against this New York team, he gave up six runs and three home runs through 5 1/3 innings, although the Mariners won that game, 8-6. And over his three starts previous to that, he allowed just five runs and 14 hits through 17 innings, with three walks against 18 strikeouts. Seattle is 15-7 with Gilbert this season, 6-2 over his last eight starts. Over two career starts against the Yankees, one last year and the one last week, Gilbert allowed six runs and eight hits through 12 1/3 innings. The Mariners won both those games. Taillon is 6/21 on quality starts this year. Last Tuesday against this Seattle team, he gave up six runs – five earned – and two home runs through 4 2/3 innings of that 8-6 New York loss. But just before that, he held Kansas City scoreless on four hits through six frames of a 1-0 Yankees win. New York is 16-5 with Taillon this season, 3-1 his last four times out. Over his last two starts against the Mariners, the one last week and one last season, Taillon gave up six ER and six hits through 11 2/3 innings. The Yanks split those two games.

Splits With the Sticks

New York is batting .245 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .332 team OBP and a .438 team slugging percentage. But this line-up is down two regular sticks with Rizzo and Stanton both out with injuries. Seattle is slashing .230/.310/.384 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Mariners bullpen owns a 3.47 ERA this season and a 1.10 WHIP. The Yankees pen owns a 3.01 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Yankees are 29-24 on the road this season and 47-30 against right-handed starters.
  • The Mariners are 29-25 at home and 49-35 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Over is 55-51 in Yankees games this season.
  • The Over is 54-52 in Mariners games.
  • The Under is 29-23 at T-Mobile Park this season.

Yankees at Mariners Predictions 8/8/22

We give Gilbert a slight edge in the pitching match-up. From there, we call this bullpen comparison darn-near a push, and while New York’s bats own better numbers, they’re down a couple of guys. So from what we can tell, this game should be lined as a pick ’em at the least. Instead, the hotter team, or at least the team that’s been playing better ball as of late, is lined as a home underdog or close to that. Betting baseball is often about betting the value we can find on those dime lines, and we like the value with the Mariners minus the tiny number.

Free Pick: Take the Mariners -102
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