Washington Nationals (18-27, 21-22 O/U) vs. Baltimore Orioles (15-27, 19-20 O/U)
When: Friday, May 16, 2025, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
TV: MASN
Betting Odds
Moneyline: WAS +101 / BAL -110
Total: 9.0 (O -102 / U -109)
Runline: WAS -1.5 +152 / BAL +1.5 -186
Sharp Money Take
The total screaming Under here at 9, and sharp money agrees. We’re getting the exact same pitching matchup as April 24th when these teams combined for just 3 runs in a 2-1 Baltimore win. Gore threw 6 innings of 2-run ball, Povich tossed 6.2 innings allowing just 1 run. Both starters looked locked in that day, and nothing suggests they’ve fallen off since.
The Under has hit in 8 of 9 meetings between these clubs at Camden Yards recently. Even more impressive? The last 7 straight games in this series have gone Under the total. When you factor in both lineups struggling – Washington averaging just 4.11 runs per game (19th in MLB) and Baltimore even worse at 3.80 (24th) – this total feels inflated.
Key Matchup Analysis
MacKenzie Gore has struggled against Baltimore in his career, going 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 2 starts. His last meeting on April 24th saw him give up 2 runs over 6 innings in a tough loss. However, he’s shown better form lately with improved command and strikeout rates.
Cade Povich is coming off a rough outing against Minnesota (5 ER in 6 IP), but his April 24th performance against this exact Washington lineup was outstanding – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, just 4 hits allowed with 5 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 lifetime against the Nationals in one start, which gives him confidence in this matchup.
Here’s the kicker – both bullpens have been getting worked lately. Washington’s pen has thrown 12 innings over the last 3 games, Baltimore’s the same. Tired relievers often means more careful management, which typically favors the Under in tight games.
Situational Factors
This is a classic “get right” spot for both clubs. Baltimore just got swept by Minnesota at home, going 0-5 SU in their last 5 at Camden Yards. Washington limps in after dropping 3 of 4 in Atlanta, including two one-run losses.
Both teams are pressing offensively. The Nats have scored 3 runs or fewer in 5 of their last 8 games. Baltimore managed just 11 total runs in a 3-game sweep loss to the Twins. When offensive confidence is low, pitchers tend to attack the zone more aggressively.
Statistical Edges
The trends are overwhelming for the Under in this matchup:
• The Under has hit in 16 of the past 18 games in this series
• The Under has hit in 4 of Washington’s last 5 road games
• Baltimore Under has hit in 15 of their last 21 games overall
• Same pitcher matchup produced a 3-run game just 3 weeks ago
Both starters have shown they can limit these specific lineups. Gore’s last start against St. Louis went Under, as did Povich’s previous two starts. When you get pitcher familiarity against opposing hitters, the advantage typically goes to the mound.
