The Brewers rode a funk into New York for the opener of this three-game series Friday night but shook it off with 10 runs and a much-needed victory. Who do we like for our free MLB pick on Saturday’s game?
MLB Betting Odds
Saturday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and Syndergaard at around –150 over Milwaukee and Woodruff, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Early betting action then dropped that line a dime, down to around -140 depending on which betting site you use.
The Mets could also be found getting around +115 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.
Brewers vs. Mets Set-Up
Milwaukee took the opener of this series Friday night 10-2, beating Jake deGrom as +155 underdogs on the MLB betting line. The Brewers broke a scoreless tie Friday with a five-run third inning, then pulled away with a four-spot in the top of the fifth.
Friday’s game also played over a total of seven runs in that Milwaukee fifth.
Friday’s victory snapped a four-game losing streak for the Brewers. At 14-13 overall Milwaukee trails first-place St. Louis by two games in the NL Central.
With Friday’s loss, New York is now 3-6 over its last nine games. At 13-12 overall the Mets now trail first-place Philadelphia by a half-game in the NL East.
This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year the Brewers took the season series from New York four games to three.
Saturday’s Starting Arms
Syndergaard, by our strict standards, is only 1/5 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last three. Last Sunday he gave up six runs – four earned – and eight hits through five innings of a 6-4 New York loss to the Cardinals. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed 13 ER and 22 hits through 17 innings.
Still, the Mets are 3-2 with Syndergaard this season.
In two starts against Milwaukee last year Syndergaard allowed three ER and eight hits through 11 1/3 innings, with 19 strikeouts. The Mets only managed to split those two games.
Woodruff is 0/5 on quality starts this season. Last Sunday he gave up five runs and seven hits, including a couple of dingers, through 5 2/3 innings of a 6-5 Brewers loss to the Dodgers. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed 11 runs and 18 hits through 17 1/3 innings.
Still, the Brewers are 3-2 with Woodruff this season.
This will be Woodruff’s first-ever start against the Mets, which could give him an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.
Saturday’s Batting Splits
Milwaukee is batting .239/.321/.450 against right-handed pitching this season.
New York is batting .247/.330/.401 against RH pitching this season.
The Bullpens
The Brewers bullpen owns a 4.37 ERA this season, along with a 1.33 WHIP and a 105/52 K/BB ratio.
The Mets bullpen is even worse, with a 5.59 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP and a 99/46 K/BB ratio.
Totals Report
- The unders are 15-11 in Brewers games this season.
- The overs are 16-6 in Mets games this season.
- The overs are 5-3 in games played at Citi Field this season.
- The overs are 4-1 in Syndergaard’s starts this season.
- The overs are 3-2 in Woodruff’s starts this season.
- Get more details: Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets MLB Match-Up Stats
